Thursday, September 27, 2007




Today's Local Real Estate News: "That's an all-time high. That's horrible."

The Miami Herald reports on the continued deterioration of home sales:

“Home sales fell sharply in August, the Florida Association of Realtors reported. The number of homes for sale still greatly outstrips demand. Banks that doled out too many risky mortgages have made it harder for buyers to borrow. Foreclosures are likely to worsen as adjustable rate mortgages reset to higher interest rates. And jittery buyers are sticking to the sidelines.”

“‘'We have not only not seen evidence of any of these items resolving, but instead we have seen further deterioration,’ Lennar CEO Stuart Miller said. Lennar, one of the nation's largest builders of new homes, has shaved 35 percent of its workforce since the downturn started last year and may let more people go.”

“In Miami-Dade County, existing single-family home sales in August dropped 45 percent from the same month a year ago and 24 percent from July. Broward single-family home sales in August were off 23 percent from August 2006 and 4 percent from July.”

“It was a similar story for condominiums. Miami-Dade condo sales fell 44 percent in August over last year and 16 percent from July. Broward condo sales were off 22 percent from last year and 2 percent compared to July.”

“This means the number of homes waiting for buyers continued growing -- from 60,900 in Miami-Dade and Broward in August 2006 to more than 80,000 this year. At the current rate, it would take 25 months to sell all of the single-family homes on the market in Miami-Dade, and 36 months for condos. It would take 21 months to sell all the homes in Broward, and 29 months for condos.”

The Sun-Sentinel reports on Palm Beach County’s housing slump:

“Sales of existing homes in Palm Beach County declined 13 percent to 568 from 655 a year ago. The median price of $366,200 was off 5 percent from $386,000 last August. And the number of homes on the market hit a record as the inventory topped 40 months.”

“The county's condominium market also was sluggish last month. Sales fell 16 percent, and the median price of $209,000 dropped 5 percent from $220,300 a year ago.”

“‘The housing market is trying to find a bottom, but it's just not there yet,’ said Mike Larson, an analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter.”

“The number of properties on the market in Palm Beach County has leveled off in recent months but still is up over last year. There were 33,708 homes and condos for sale at the end of August, a 10 percent increase from 30,774 a year ago, according to Illustrated Properties in Palm Beach Gardens.”

“At the current pace, it would take 40.3 months to sell that inventory, assuming no new properties were listed. ‘That's an all-time high,’ said Chappy Adams, president of Illustrated. ‘That's horrible.’”

“Horrible” can also be used to described the earnings report by Miami-based Lennar. The Sun-Sentinel reports:

“Tough times in the national housing market led to a company record loss of $513.9 million for Lennar Corp. in the third quarter, with drops in sales prices and home deliveries compounded by heavy charges to write down land values. Its shares fell almost 4 percent.”

“One of the nation's largest home builders said Tuesday it had cut its work force by 35 percent this year and that it expects to pare more employees soon.”

“‘These continue to be very difficult times for the homebuilding industry,’ Lennar Chief Executive Stuart Miller said in a conference call.”

“It was the biggest quarterly loss in the 53-year history of Lennar. Miller said consumer confidence in the housing market is low.”

The Palm Beach Post reports on a protest by ACORN:

“Dozens of people poured out of a big yellow school bus in Wednesday's rain to protest what they said was Ocwen Financial's predatory lending practices.”

“The group, members of ACORN, crowded into the lobby of Ocwen's headquarters, chanting loudly and demanding to talk to the chief executive of one of the country's largest subprime loan servicers.”

“ACORN - Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now - wants Ocwen to stop foreclosures and evictions immediately, restructure loans based on borrowers' incomes and ability to pay, and offer to lock in the initial interest rate for the remaining terms of the loan for borrowers who cannot afford monthly payments that are about to reset at much higher interest rates.”

“ACORN estimates 1.8 million adjustable rate mortgages worth $900 billion will reset by the end of this year and in 2008.”

“In June alone, $25 billion in loans reset.”

“Of all homeowners who received a subprime mortgage in recent years, one in three will lose their homes within the next six years, according to the activist group.”

In the face of this news, the NAHB is going on a “Buy Now” campaign. The Palm Beach Post reports:
“Weary of what they say is a ‘relentless tide of bad news’ (Hmmm. Where have we heard that before?), builders are fighting back - in the media, no less.”

“The National Association of Home Builders leveraged its $3 million national ad campaign into a broader $8.3 million campaign with funds from local home-building associations. The NAHB provided grants to 168 HBAs in 42 states.”

“Many of the grants for the "Buy Now" builders' ad blitz went to states hardest hit by the housing downturn, including Florida.”

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

40.3 months of inventory!

Ouch.

That's the highest number I have seen yet. It's amazing that price aren't dropping even quicker. It's only a matter of time.

Anonymous said...

One of the reasons is that sellers keep thinking that the market will go back to "normal" and then they will get their price.
However they don't seem to realize that "normal" is the pre 2001 market and that the run up of 2001-2005 is "abnormal" and must be shaken out.
Look at this chart if my link works, it is striking how the market did the same thing in 1987-88 but didn't bottom out till 1996.

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/09/23/weekinreview/20070923_BAJAJ_GRAPHIC.html

Anonymous said...

I talked to a realtor on Wednsday and told him I was waiting and watching the house prices and would consider buying when prices fell to a more affordable level. He said "Prices are not going to fall". I said, but they already are falling, even your own website shows prices being reduced". He said, "Oh, you mean asking prices". What!! What other kind of prices could I mean? He was really hostile and holding it in check. I think the market is making a local realtor liars a little tense, not that I care.

Anonymous said...

Realtors are getting very testy out there. My wife and I go to open houses now and then and I've noticed they get REALLY pissed when you tell them that you're just looking. When you explain taht you won't be buying anything for at least 12 more months, they're usally ready to throw you out of the open house.

I'm usually pretty nice, but a few times my wife has just fired back at the testy realtors. I just sit back and watch the fireworks. Nothing is more fun than a cat fight between my testy wife and a testy realtor.

Anonymous said...

You said testy

Anonymous said...

That's too funny guys, my wife and I are rolling!