Tuesday, September 18, 2007




Video: Flipper Nation (Episode 3): The Flippin' Fight

This is the third episode of a great series mocks flipping shows that have become popular on A&E, TLC, and HGTV:

CLICK HERE TO SEE THE VIDEO

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

So, how many of you geniuses were short on the market yesterday? I know everything is going to hell, according to many of you!

September 19, 2007 at 8:56 AM
Anonymous said...

This is Braziliano

So, how many of you geniuses were short on the market yesterday? I know everything is going to hell, according to many of you!

September 19, 2007 at 8:57 AM
Anonymous said...

I'm very bearish on the market. But it certainly came as no surprise to me that the market would rally on a rate cut. Whether 25 or 50 points, the result would have been a rally. If I had to use one word to describe Wall Street lately, it would be "schizophrenic". One day the market is "concerned" over some subprime problem and tha market dives. The next it's "optimisitic" by the fact that Burger King's earnings are up. The stock market has been highly volatile, to say the least.

This latest rally is based on the idea that a rate cut will magically fix all the problems with the economy.

It won't.

Even the great stock market crash of 1929 had many "sucker's rallies" on the way down.

I'm not trying to say that we've got some new "great depression" ahead of us. I'm just trying to say that Wall Street's exuberance can only prop up a market for so long (see late 90's stock market). Eventually the reality sets in.

If you really think that the Fed is going to fix the economy the same way that they messed it up in the first place (by lowering rates), you've been drinking too much of the Kool-aid.

Many believe, in fact, that a rate cut may worsen things, longer-term.

September 19, 2007 at 10:22 AM
Anonymous said...

Too busy covering your short positions BOYS? Remember how you guys were telling me the market is going to tank, and I asked you to short the market?? I hope you did. But my feeling is, most of you are poor renters here, who wanted to buy real-estate a few years ago, but never did. Now you are cheering the down turn, pretending that you know everything..and hoping that prices will fall more....My theory is: things will get better, the real-estate market will get stabilize, but it can take a year or even more.

September 19, 2007 at 10:33 AM
Anonymous said...

Braziliano, I don't know who you're talking to. I don't recall much talk from other posters on this blog about shorting the stock market. Most posters are real estate market bears, and for good reason. South Florida is practically ground zero for the housing bubble. The main topic of this blog is South Florida real estate--something I haven't heard any cheery news about recently.

Based on the emotion that comes through in your posts, you seem to be the one with something to lose.

I did own a house and sold it because I felt the market was over-inflated. I am very happy with my decision. I don't stress at all over the markets because I have no position in them.

I don't lose any sleep over which way the market (either real estate or housing) is moving.

And short-term fluctuations are insignificant to me. I prefer to look at the longer-term picture. I disagree with your view that things will get better from here.

We'll see how things pan out a year from now. Anything is possible, but I think it's a much smarter bet that things will get worse rather than better. And that goes for the economy as a whole, but especially for South Florida real estate. I think we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg at this point. With all the ARM resets and foreclosures ready to hit the market, combined with much, much, tighter lending standards, things should get much worse before they "stabilize".

September 19, 2007 at 12:56 PM
Anonymous said...

Let me ask you this: why are you guys are so happy every time there is a new foreclosure? If you live in SO.Florida and own a home this can not be good for you! Just wondering!

September 19, 2007 at 2:22 PM
Anonymous said...

NOBODY is happy when an innocent family loses their house, braziliano. That's tragic.

But foreclosures in South Florida aren't happening to innocent families. They are happening to greedy speculators, flippers, and people who should have easily realized they wouldn't be able to keep up payments when their ARM adjusted down the road. But those people showed ZERO common sense, and they don't deserve sympathy or bailouts.

As for the few innocent families who are the victims of mortgage fraud, I truly feel sympathy for them. But there aren't many of them these days compared to the other group.

2009 may bring stability to the real estate market, but 2008 is going to be very painful.

I'm not a poor renter. I'm a happy renter. Eventually I'll be a happy home owner.

If I would have listened to my Realtor friends two years ago, today I would be a very sad home owner. So many people (including the Herald) pumped a lot of air into the bubble.

Most people posting here are like me, just waiting for sanity to settle back into the market so we can buy. So we check this site for updates on the return of sanity.

But braziliano, you seem to visit the site for a different reason. What is your mindset? I ask without malice. I'm just interested to know.

September 19, 2007 at 4:22 PM
Anonymous said...

braziliano, I don't believe you get the point of this blog. Over the past 5yrs, the housing market bubble has become a dangerous risk to the u.s. economy. Easy money and abysmal lending practices encouraged real estate asset inflation and mortgage fraud throughout the nation. The increase in home values was temporary delinked from income levels. This distorted both the allocation of monetary as well as human capital throughout the country for the past several years(do we really need all those loan brokers and real estate agents?).

No one on this board is happy when a family loses their home, but as many have pointed out, a lot of the loss will hit speculative investors. And losing your home due to foreclosure is vastly better than being locked into a home with negative equity for 15yrs which can destroy your long-term ability to recover from the loss on your home. The blog helps in 2 important areas, it may – just a little – increase the financial literacy of people looking to buy a home and it will help new buyers better understand when to re-enter the South Florida housing market (one of the most speculative in the country). Miami median housing is 10x per capita income, do you really think that is normal? or sustainable?

As for my returns on the market, well, I have had a great run of things. During the past several months I figured Bernanke would cut and as a result, the USD would continue to devalue against the Euro, that commodities would perform well as they are denominated in USD and are structurally short the USD, that international equity indexes would outperform the DJIA, and inflation-orientated investments would do well. I adjusted my portfolio accordingly.

September 19, 2007 at 8:23 PM

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