Monday, November 19, 2007



Today's Local Real Estate News: "The renters are collateral damage in the mortgage crisis."

The Miami Herald reports on problem that will only get worse in 2008, tax deliquencies:

"The property-tax bill was the final blow for Astride Hercule -- $5,400 due April 1, on top of mortgage payments that were set to soar on her Miami duplex."

'''I absolutely could not pay it,' said Hercule, a mental-health technician at North Shore Medical Center."

"So, she didn't."

"Unpaid property taxes in Miami-Dade and Broward counties reached new highs this year, as thousands of homeowners tumbled into foreclosure, shrugged off bills on investment properties they couldn't unload, or, like Hercule, found it impossible to make lump-sum tax payments that their boom-era mortgages didn't require them to put in escrow. Total unpaid amount: $365 million."

"In Miami-Dade County, 41,544 residential property owners -- one of every 16 households -- failed to pay their 2006 property-tax bills. That's an increase of 41 percent from the year before, according to an analysis of county tax data. In Broward, the number grew 54 percent to 29,962 -- about one per 21 households."

"In both counties, roughly 65 percent of unpaid accounts were from investors, second-home owners, and others with no homestead exemption, the analysis showed."

The Palm Beach Post reports on a study of ARM resets:

“First American CoreLogic of Santa Ana, Calif., says this question is ‘probably the most important issue in the analysis of real estate today.’”

“Christopher Cagan, the company's director of research and analytics, wrote the report.”

“It looked at 26 million first mortgages throughout the country originated between 2004 and 2006 - and worth nearly $5.4 trillion in debt.”

“The study focuses on the 8.37 million adjustable-rate mortgages due to reset in the next five to seven years.”

“(Obviously, the mortgage meltdown mess is not going to be over anytime soon.)”

“‘Mortgage payment reset is expected to have its impact into the early years of the next decade," the report says.”

“The study predicts an estimated 1.1 million mortgage foreclosures spread out over the next seven years - about 13 percent of the ARMs originated through purchase or refinance from 2004 to 2006, representing $326 billion of debt.”

“‘After foreclosure and resale, it is projected that about $112 billion will be lost to remaining equity, lenders and investors over several years," the report says.”

The Sun-Sentinel reports on North Lauderdale’s efforts to avert foreclosures:

“With so many homes in North Lauderdale in foreclosure, city leaders are seeking to help financially troubled homeowners.”

“They plan to create a new staff position, Neighborhood Improvement Coordinator, who will advise residents how to avoid foreclosure, guide those about to lose their homes and deal with the rash of abandoned properties in the city.”

“‘If we take a proactive approach, we might be able to head it off at the pass,’ said Jesus Valdes, assistant director of community development.”

“Lenders have repossessed at least 57 homes, the owners of 90 foreclosed homes are trying to sell them and at least 325 additional homeowners are in danger of losing their homes, he said.”

Miramar is taking similar steps to assist troubled borrowers according to the Sun-Sentinel:

“The city is seeing an increase in homeowners applying for help with late mortgage payments through its foreclosure prevention program.”

“In September 2006, Miramar joined a growing number of cities setting aside state housing funds to help residents get caught up on their house payments.”

“Under the program, the city offers some homeowners a deferred loan of up to $10,000 to get current on their mortgages and cover interest, taxes and insurance fees.”

“But funding is limited. So far, 24 homeowners have applied for assistance, said Gus Zambrano, the city's director of economic development and revitalization. Of those, one was granted a $10,000 loan, the maximum allowed, and four applications are pending.”
“But Zambrano said not all homeowners will qualify for assistance. Zambrano said homeowners have to be able to show that with the assistance they would be able to afford their mortgage.”

“‘We find that there are a lot of bad loans that people could never really afford,’ he said. ‘We can't help those people because they can't pay the loan back. With our program you have to be able to get out of your situation. It has to be temporary.’”

The Herald Tribune reports on how foreclosures are affecting some renters:

“There are no exact figures for how many renters have been evicted because of foreclosures, but a survey taken this year by the Mortgage Bankers Association found that one in eight foreclosures was non-owner-occupied. This figure probably underestimates the problem, according to the association, because buildings receive tax benefits if they are registered as owner-occupied. More than one million properties are expected to enter foreclosure this year.”

“Many renters say they never even knew their buildings were heading for foreclosure.”

“‘This is an explosion,’ said Judith Liben, a lawyer at the Massachusetts Law Reform Institute. ‘This isn’t business as usual. These are investors that overleveraged themselves, and the renters are collateral damage in the mortgage crisis.’”

“Foreclosing lenders typically evict tenants in order to sell the property, said Vicki Vidal, senior director of loan administration and government affairs at the Mortgage Bankers Association.”

“Banks don’t want to be landlords,” Ms. Vidal said. “They’re in the business of making mortgages. You need to recoup the money to keep the process moving.’”

“Unlike owners who lose their houses, renters do not stand to forfeit years of equity. And many can find comparable rentals.”

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Housing Market's Stench Means Cut Price to Sell: John F. Wasik
By John F. Wasik

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Raffles, festive balloons, open houses, car giveaways. Will any of these incentives sell houses? Not at the moment.

You don't have to be particularly creative in a market glutted with homes for sale. The painful reality is that homes are commodities. There are more than 4 million of them sitting out there unsold and more coming on the market every day due to foreclosures. If you really need to sell a house, price is the one lever that will move a property.

Almost everywhere your competition is abundant while buyers are waiting for prices to fall even more. U.S. existing-home prices are expected to drop almost 2 percent this year nationally, according to the National Association of Realtors, and are likely to fall further in areas oversaturated with homes for sale.

``Buyers just want price,'' says Mike Morgan, a Stuart, Florida-based lawyer, real-estate broker and consultant who researches property markets for hedge funds and financial institutions. ``Buyers have become educated and they can easily cut through the fluffy incentives.''

Morgan doesn't see any national rebound until at least 2010; maybe longer if builders keep constructing homes, and if banks continue dumping foreclosed properties on the market.

Morgan's Perspective

There's no way of telling how many homes are truly on the market since the picture is so dynamic.

About 2 million properties may be foreclosed upon in the coming year alone, resulting in an estimated loss of $223 billion in U.S. home equity, particularly in California, New York, Florida and Illinois, according to the Center for Responsible Lending, a North Carolina-based non-profit group.

Living near a foreclosed home may even trim as much as $5,000 from your own home's market value, the center says. Some 44 million households will be affected, or about a third of all U.S. housing units.

Selling has become a trying proposition in this dour market. Morgan has found that traditional deal-sweeteners such as paying broker bonuses and giving cash back on closing to the buyer aren't working as well as price cuts.

``On one $429,000 home a client wanted me to sell, the seller wanted to give the broker a $30,000 bonus on top of the commission. I told him it wouldn't help. I told him to just drop the price.''

Because the market is so price-sensitive -- buyers want bargains and sellers want to get prices they saw at the market's peak -- you have to be flexible when advertising your home.

Morgan suggests you sell exclusively through Internet-based property sites and local Multiple Listing Services. He has found that newspaper ads, signs and open houses don't work as well as the Internet.

What Works

When you price your property, you need to employ a strategy that can run counter to your emotional perception of the home's value. That sometimes means listing at a price far below what you have anchored upon.

Like any commodity, a home's price will follow supply-and- demand trends. In theory, custom homes in desirable neighborhoods should hold their value. Other properties should be discounted depending on how many similar homes or condos are on the market. Every market is different, though.

``If you don't get any calls on your listing price after a week, drop your price $10,000 or about 2 percent of your original asking price,'' Morgan says.

``The market will tell you what the price of your home is. You better be priced 10 percent under your competition -- and then be prepared to think about accepting offers under that.''

I know that's a disheartening strategy. Yet if you have to sell now, you need to take an honest look at housing inventories in your area.

Check Inventories

Selling in Miami? You are up against almost 80,000 listed condos and single-family homes, according to ZipRealty, an online brokerage service.

There are almost 30,000 units in Las Vegas; 42,000 in Boston; 35,000 in Seattle and 110,000 in Los Angeles. Those inventories are through October.

Price-cutting is the order of business in most major markets. The service's price-reduction index, for example, shows that more than half the listings surveyed in Boston, Orange County and Sacramento, California, are discounted.

Even markets that were considered relatively stable are bloated with unsold homes.

``People were telling me Boston and Seattle were OK,'' said Morgan, who recently visited both cities. ``I've got news for those folks. They aren't OK.''

Trouble Ahead

Will the Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut on Oct. 31 revive the moribund housing market?

It may spur a few buyers, but it won't help homeowners unable to refinance out of unaffordable adjustable-rate loans and headed for foreclosure. Nor will it clear out the massive inventory of newly built and previously owned homes.

Untold numbers of sellers are holding on to their properties or selling without brokers. Many pull homes off the market to rent at a loss.

Also look for builders to keep finishing new homes because they need to move inventory.

To sell those houses, they have to offer steep discounts. They will be advertising and doing anything they can to attract buyers. It will take more than balloons and donuts, though, to land the number of buyers they need to stay in business.

(John F. Wasik, author of ``The Merchant of Power,'' is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: John F. Wasik in Chicago at jwasik@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: November 19, 2007 00:08 EST

Anonymous said...

Does anyone have information on purchasing foreclosures?

Anonymous said...

Interesting article about legislation that would prevent foreclosures with tenants in them to be marketed for sale by the bank for 6 months following the foreclosure:

Protections for Renters in Foreclosures

Anonymous said...

Speaking of unpaid property tax bills, having attended many tax certificate auctions, you'd be surprised at some of the people that don't pay their tax bills. Every year, there are some wealthy names on the list of unpaid tax bills.

I actually know a fairly wealthy guy who PURPOSELY lets his tax bills go unpaid. Once they're delinquent, you (as a property owner) have a full 2 years before the certificate holder can bring your property to tax deed auction. In the meantime, (in recent years, at least), the penalty for not paying your tax bill has amounted to about 8% per year (assuming the certificate sells for .25% - which almost all do). The guy I mentioned considers it a reasonably cheap loan. He feels he can earn a better return on his money by delaying payment on the bill for 2 years and investing the money in the meantime.

If I had a reliable way to earn more than 8% on my money, I would do the same. But there are many people out there who think letting the tax bill go unpaid is a prudent financial decision. I disagee (simply because I don't think you can reliably beat 8%), but nevertheless, people do it.

By the way - it used to be different. Tax certificates used to have very high yields. But over the last 5 years or so, the auctions have been dominated by banks who buy up the certificates at .25% interest (with a minimum of 5% the first year). The idea being that most bills will get paid shortly after the auction, resulting in a very high annualized return over a short period (because of the 5% minimum). Anyways, I worked out the numbers, and by not paying your tax bill in November to get the biggest discount, and adding delinquency fees and letting the bill go unpaid the full 2 years, it would cost you about 8% a year over those 2 years.

By the way, this has NO impact on your credit rating at all. Delinquent tax bills do not show up in any credit report. It's pretty simple, really - if you don't pay the bill for 2 years, you lose the property (if the certificate holder decides to bring it to sale).

So, someone that is in financial trouble would be smart to delay paying the property tax bill first, since it has the least downside compared to many other options that would impact your credit rating or cost you more money.

Anonymous said...

As someone who is renting a house in Preforeclosure, it is a very stressful way to live. And how can we guarantee that the next house we rent (when we get kicked out of here) won't be going in to foreclosure too. We were only here 3 months before we found out the NOD (Notice of Default) had been issued. It stinks!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
As someone who is renting a house in Preforeclosure, it is a very stressful way to live.
----------------

I rented a home and then it went into foreclosure, the owner filed for bankruptcy and didn’t claim me as income to the Gov. (he wanted cash payments). I then told him he would have to accept checks and I was going to make sure it would come up in his case. He then just walked away. The best thing about it was I lived in the house for a year rent FREE. People came to the house with all kinds of stories as to why they needed to look at the house - I DIDNT LET THEM IN, DONT LET THEM IN, THEY ARE INVESTORS WANTING TO BY THE HOUSE AT AUCTION.
Then I was given a notice about the date that it was going to auction, I didn’t have cash money for it but I went. A guy purchased the home however he screwed up and thought it was a nicer home across the street. The guy came to the house later that day and wanted to go in, I told him no. We came to a purchase price (after I threaten them with pouring quickrock cement down the drain) on the lawn and I got the home for 7k more than he paid. It was a great deal at the time and I have loved it.

I would stay put and don’t pay anything, try and threaten the landlord with some BS that the bank wants copies of all checks u give him - just see if he walks away. The process today takes so long that you could live there for a year rent free, save your money and try to buy the place if you think it’s worth it. Afterwards if that doesn’t work threaten them with quickrock cement down the drain (that’s what I did - the dumbass fell for it and I came out smelling like a rose. Enjoy life and save every dime u can, no one can get you out in less than 30 days...

100

Anonymous said...

13705 SW 110 CT, Miami, FL 33176
Purchased on 6/2006 for $880,000
Currently listed for $700,00
MLS #: D1233322
Owner does not appear to have paid 2006 taxes.
House looks trashed. Could be bank owned.

Anonymous said...

``If you don't get any calls on your listing price after a week, drop your price $10,000 or about 2 percent of your original asking price,'' Morgan says.

``The market will tell you what the price of your home is. You better be priced 10 percent under your competition -- and then be prepared to think about accepting offers under that.''

Good article Duck,

That is the exact type of strategy that worked fro me. I sold my home last month in one of the worst months on record. And I had 2 offers in one week. When the first one fell through in financing, the second on came through and closed in two weeks!
I had to keep dropping my price till I hit 20% below the CMA's.
PRICE SELLS IN ANY MARKET!