Today's Local Real Estate News: "Strap yourselves in, everyone, the short sales and foreclosures are coming like a freight train."

In an effort to spin a more optimistic view, Nancy Dahlberg, the Miami Herald business editor, will start searching for South Florida’s next “economic wave:”

“My hope is that Business Monday is more than just a collection of stories, that woven through it is local context and community voices about the economy that you can't find anywhere else. We've written a lot about the current housing slump's effects on various industries, and we will continue to do that. But sometimes we also need to step back and look at this slowdown in the context of past ups and downs, and find out what some of the best minds in South Florida are thinking will be South Florida's next wave.”

“Although this downturn is already taking victims -- Fort Lauderdale homebuilder Levitt and Sons filed for Chapter 11 Friday afternoon -- it is mild compared to the past, at least so far. ‘The scary thing about the downturn of the early '90s was how broad-based it was,’ says Gregg Fields, who covered the economy for nearly 20 years for The Herald and wrote today's cover story. ‘Airlines, banks, construction, tourism (because of crime scares) -- all of our core industries were imploding. And the Fed was scared to death of inflation, so it kept interest rates high, meaning hardly anyone could borrow to expand businesses, even if they wanted to.’”

But after each wave of the past, South Florida ultimately emerged a little bit stronger. Are we better prepared this time? And what will be our future wave to catch?


The Miami Herald starts this week with the following:

“There's no doubt South Florida, especially Miami, has become a national poster child for real estate foibles, most notably a budding condo glut, softening home values and increasing strife related to the subprime lending mess.”

“Looking forward, the region could face steep job losses from slowing construction -- indeed, on Friday, Fort Lauderdale homebuilder Levitt and Sons filed for bankruptcy protection. Other economic hurdles could include an inability to resolve the twin headaches of high property taxes and windstorm insurance and, possibly, sharply reduced population growth.”

“Against that context, some believe the current negative sentiment is overblown. The truth is that South Florida has long had one of the most resilient regional economies in the country. The last bona fide recession here was in the early 1990s. Though the region, like the rest of the country, wobbled immediately after 9/11, it absorbed the Internet bust and resultant stock market plunge much better than most.”

“Few corners of the world attracted capital better than South Florida in the past 15 years, with rivers of money flowing into glistening office towers, upscale hotels and virtual forests of high-rise condos.”

In some promising news, the Palm Beach Post reports that Save our Homes portability amendment does not yet have the required 60% support:

“A majority of Florida voters support the property tax amendment on the Jan. 29 ballot, but not enough to approve the changes, according to a new Palm Beach Post poll.”

“Although 53 percent of those polled said they support the proposed amendment, 60 percent approval is needed to amend the state constitution.”

“But the poll also shows that 20 percent of voters remain undecided, which means that, among voters who have made up their minds, 66 percent of voters support the amendment.”

“Support for ballot questions often declines as election day approaches - and less than three months remain until this vote - but one of the survey's pollsters said this amendment has the advantage of Gov. Charlie Crist's promising to "campaign like the dickens" on its behalf.”

The lack of support comes even before groups have started to fight against the amendment. The Sun-Sentinel reports:

“Florida's property-tax overhaul was packaged to win voter approval — with Gov. Charlie Crist and state legislators careful to include only items popular with homeowners and businesses.”

“But the proposed constitutional amendment is drawing more enemies than allies, fueling doubts about the prospects of the $12.4 billion package gaining the necessary 60 percent approval from voters Jan. 29.”

“Labor groups are gearing up to fight the measure, and their money and manpower could out-muscle the middling support coming so far from business organizations.”

“‘This is the wrong place, wrong time for this kind of thing,’ said Bob Carver, president of the Florida Professional Firefighters Association, whose 22,500 members are pledging $500,000 toward a campaign against the measure.”

“‘You look at the kind of money people are going to get back, and it's not worth the cuts in services they'll face,’ he added.”

Victoria Fournier explained her opposition to the new amendment in a recent letter to the Sun-Sentinel editor:

“Taxes for the tuxes," classism and clubism at its best.”

“So much for real tax relief. The ‘tuxes’ — that club of lucky buyers (those who bought pre-2001, already receiving grossly disproportionate homestead protection from the run-up in taxes/property values in recent years) — get yet another bonus: $25,000 more in deductions and portability.”

“We common folk — unlucky buyers (those who bought post-2001 and are shouldering an outrageously disproportionate share of the homesteaded property taxes) — continue to get no consideration.”

“I bought in 2005, and am drowning in property taxes; and the Legislature just threw me the equivalent of a teething ring in the middle of the ocean.”

“Strap yourselves in, everyone, the short sales and foreclosures are coming like a freight train to your neighborhood, too; and we all will have equal opportunity to continue to lose property value as a result of the disgraceful failure on the part of our Legislature to propose real tax relief.”