Thursday, November 22, 2007




Today's Local Real Estate News: "Trapped, unable to move because they can't sell unless they significantly drop their price."

The Chicago Tribune hints at why the Mainstream Media has been so biased in their reporting of the housing bubble:

“Real estate is the newspaper industry's largest source of classified ads, accounting for $5.16 billion, or 11 percent, of publishers' total ad revenue last year, according to the Newspaper Association of America. The real estate industry spent $2.05 billion advertising online at sites such as Realtor.com and Zillow.com in 2006, Borrell said.”

“Newspapers' print real estate advertising will drop to $3.19 billion a year by 2011, said Borrell, which advises the publishing industry. Newspaper Web sites brought in about $380 million in real estate ads last year, the firm said.”

“‘If the newspapers' share of online advertising remains static or declines, the net loss will be huge, over $860 million in lost advertising from this category alone,’ the report said. Every $1 of lost advertising translates into a 75-cent drop in profit, Martin said.”

“Newspapers believe they will regain much of the real estate advertising they lost this year when the housing market improves, said Charlie Diederich, marketing director for the newspaper association, based in Arlington, Va.”

Forbes explains how the parent company of the Miami Herald relies on real estate advertising:

“The downturn in the housing market is likely to threaten ad sales at newspaper publisher McClatchy, an analyst warned Wednesday.”

“Shares of McClatchy (nyse: MNI - news - people ) fell 21 cents, or 1.4%, to $14.53 at the close, after Bear Stearns analyst Alexia S. Quadrani initiated coverage of the company with an ‘underperform’ rating. Quadrani pointed to strains from the downturn in the U.S. housing market.”

“‘McClatchy’s relatively high concentration in markets that are most exposed to the housing downturn will likely continue to depress overall results and deliver another year of industry-leading declines in newspaper advertising growth," said Quadrani.”

“Home sales have drastically slowed in many regions. Demand has waned as access to mortgages tightens. This hurts McClatchy because home sales are often advertised in local papers.”

“Over a third of McClatchy's advertising revenue comes from Florida and California. The real estate markets in both states have seen a particularly sharp downturn.”

“McClatchy is headquartered in Sacramento. The company is the third-largest newspaper publisher by circulation. Its papers include the Miami Herald and the Sacramento Bee.”

Florida Today reveals how even biased statistics like median sale price are manipulated by the Florida Association of Realtors®:

“Brevard County had the largest percentage drop in housing prices in the last quarter of any major market in the United States, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday.”

“In what some experts are calling the nation's worst housing slump in decades, the quarterly sales report showed housing values fell in many of the 156 major markets around the nation, but none by more than the 12.4 percent drop on the Space Coast.”

“The median resale price of single-family homes in Brevard fell to $182,400 in the third quarter, down from $208,200 in the third quarter last year, according to the report.”

“Meanwhile, the Florida Association of Realtors, which uses a different method of compiling sales data, reported Wednesday the median home resale price in Brevard fell 9 percent in the third quarter to $196,500, down from $215,400 in the third quarter of 2006.”

“Some market observers thought the local market would have been stronger by now.”

“‘I'm surprised that it's still continuing. You keep thinking it's going to turn around,’ Space Coast Association of Realtors President Lance Vandeberg said, referring to about slumping sales and prices”

In more interesting spin, the Orlando Sentinel tries to boast their horrible real estate market by showing that it still not as bad as South Florida’s. It also shows the silliness of the median price statistic by claiming that Miami’s market did not see a decline:

“Sales in Orlando's four-county metro area were still down 39 percent from a year ago, when the market was cooling but still far hotter than it is now, the Florida Association of Realtors reported. But the 4,005 homes sold by Realtors in Metro Orlando bested all other metro areas except Tampa-St. Petersburg, which recorded 5,913 resales of single-family homes.”

“Miami-Dade County, the state's largest metro area, has nearly twice as many people as Metro Orlando, yet Orlando Realtors sold more than three times as many single-family homes as their Miami counterparts. Miami's third-quarter total -- 1,250 -- was down 42 percent from the same period a year earlier, the biggest percentage decline of any of the state's large metro areas.”

“Statewide, 31,910 single-family homes were sold through Realtors, down 29 percent from the third quarter of 2006. Homes sold by individuals are not counted in the report, but they constitute a much smaller share of the overall market.”

“The state's median sales price continued to slip in the third quarter from a year earlier, down 6 percent to $232,100.”

“Every metro market posted a price decline except Miami, which was essentially flat with a 1 percent increase to $380,400. Orlando's price dip matched the state average of 6 percent, but the $247,700 figure was still 7 percent higher than the statewide median.”

The Palm Beach post details dropping median sales prices in Palm Beach County:

“Palm Beach County single-family home prices in the third quarter declined 4 percent compared with the same quarter of 2006, and in the Treasure Coast prices fell 13 percent compared with the year-ago period, FAR said.”

“The region's housing market slump is clearly worsening. And frustrated home sellers arguably are feeling most of the sting.”

“According to FAR, the median price of a Palm Beach County existing single-family home was $365,400, down from $380,900 in the third quarter of last year. Meanwhile, in the Treasure Coast - which includes Martin and St. Lucie counties - the median price fell to $218,300, FAR said. The median is the midpoint where half the homes sold for more and half sold for less.”

“While the third-quarter figures offer few surprises, experts say they are a sobering reminder of the ongoing hangover from the region's real estate boom. Home prices in Palm Beach County reached a high of $421,500 in November of 2005, FAR records show. As of September, area prices have declined for 16 straight months.”

“Both the state and national Realtors associations release their October sales reports next week, and more disappointing news is expected.”

“‘What goes unexplained is how so many people got caught up in this real estate fantasy after losing money in the tech-wreck bear market of 2000-2002,’ said John Pankauski of the Pankauski Law Firm in West Palm Beach. ‘It seems that as history repeats itself, it costs more each time.’”

The Sun-Sentinel reports on seniors that are “trapped” in their homes because they refuse to lower their prices:

“Alice Gordon was getting ready to put her villa up for sale in Palm Isles, but she's decided to wait.”

“After two falls, she uses a walker, and an aide helps her and does the grocery shopping. She wants to move into independent living, but Alice is putting her move on hold because of the flat real estate market.”

“How long was she told it would take to sell her place? ‘Forever,’ she said, laughing.”

“Alice's scenario is played out across the swath of retirement communities, especially in western Delray Beach, where people bought condos decades ago. Now many of them are trapped, unable to move because they can't sell unless they significantly drop their price. ‘The real estate market is making it extremely difficult for residents who want to go into assisted living or go up to be by their children,’ said Bob Schulbaum, longtime president of the Alliance of Delray Residential Associations, which has 65 members in the city and western suburbs that he estimates house about 70,000 people. ‘They're tapping their savings to bring in aides.’”

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Now many of them are trapped, unable to move because they can't sell unless they significantly drop their price."

So what you're saying is that if they significantly drop their price, they'll sell. In other words, they're not "trapped", right?

Help! My equity has fallen and can't get up!

Anonymous said...

el a,

LOL!

Sadly, they are losing hundreds of thousands $$$, waiting for a "comeback" that will never happen in their lives.
Their heirs will drop the price when they die or go to the old folks home.
I see it happening already.

Anonymous said...

140 per sq ft

I have been watching LHP area for a nice dry lot home but I cannot seem to see what you have been talking about in regards to price drop. I have been looking for anything east of 23rd ave (aka Lighthouse dr)with around 2000 sq ft but don't see much under $500K.
You would think if waterfronts are coming down in price there would be a big drop in dry lot homes. Where are all these big price drops you refer to?
BTW congrats on your recent sale.

Anonymous said...

A couple of things are interesting about the articles:

1/ I not only think newspaper have a bias in reporting on the housing market, but so do reporters who are often homeowners.

2/ Why didn't the reporter challenge the one about dropping the price of her house? Why do these reporters not challenge statements made by people and why don't they have an economist add some context? In the long-run, the correction in the housing marker will be in the best interest of the economy as the housing bubble severely distorted the allocation of financial and human capital.

3/ I don't know why someone doesn't map inventory against the movement in house prices. Looking at housingtracker.net, the inventory levels in Miami are heading to stratospheric levels. In Miramar, there are a stunning number of proposed short-sales in that community. The SFLA economy does not produce enough high-income earners to sustain the level of USD 500k+ out there.

Anonymous said...

after re-reading my post. i may stop posting as i appear to be incoherent in my writing.

Anonymous said...

price crash,

I don't pay much attention to dry lots, but it does seem like they are not dropping as much as waterfronts.
I think one reason might be that waterfronts went up 3-5 times.
A typical 2000 sq ft ranch in LHP or Deerfield were selling for $2-300k in 1998-99.
At peak they were at $900-1.3mil!
So now coming down into the $500-600 range is still double what they were.
The mantra all the Realtors were chanting was "a waterfront lot is worth $900-1mil".
Well now we are seeing waterfront HOMES in the 5-600's, and I still hear some of those morons chanting that crap.

Anonymous said...

Duck,

HANDS OVER YOUR HEAD AND STEP AWAY FROM THE BOTTLE, and keyboard.
LOL

Anonymous said...

"Sadly, they are losing hundreds of thousands $$$, waiting for a "comeback" that will never happen in their lives.
Their heirs will drop the price when they die or go to the old folks home.
I see it happening already."

November 22, 2007 10:42 AM

Wow, you know the future? I think you are making pretty bold predictions regarding what can/might/will happen in the future!

Anonymous said...

Wow, you know the future? I think you are making pretty bold predictions regarding what can/might/will happen in the future!

Maybe you would like to place a bet with me? How much? Put your money with your mouth.
I can show you 2 deeply discounted homes in estate right now.
You can be a real moron sometimes B.

Anonymous said...

Braziliano,

I noticed that you've been scarce around here lately. Back when the stock market was rocking and rolling, you were here every day telling us what a bunch of dumbasses we all were (even though the stock market has nothing to do with real estate).

Now the the stock market is crashing as well (down over 8% off its peak), you disappeared.

I'm glad you're back because you make these boards a little more fun. We need at least one cheerleader in the bunch.

However, I worry as the Dow drops another 1000+ points we'll never see you again (even though the stock market STILL has nothing to do with the real estate market).