Monday, October 22, 2007




Today's Local Real Estate News: "There's no shortage of culprits."

In a cent article, The Palm Beach Post tried to answer the blame game question:

“‘The thing we have the most difficulty doing nowadays is figuring out who has legitimately been taken advantage of, as opposed to who went into the transaction with their eyes open,’ says Mr. Sichenzia, now lead investigator for the Deerfield Beach law firm of Glinn Somera & Silva, which handles foreclosure cases.”

“That's because so many had something to gain from the mortgage bubble, says Bill Davis, president of Private Funding Specialists and past president of the Florida Association of Mortgage Brokers' Palm Beach County region — and many of those people went about their business winking and nodding. ‘It's everybody,’ he says. ‘The Federal Reserve participated, the big lenders played a part, the credit ratings agencies had a part, so did hedge funds and borrowers, appraisers.’”

“The local results: In the six months ending July 1 of this year alone, more than $1 billion in mortgages defaulted in Palm Beach County and along the Treasure Coast. Not every borrower, though, was seeking shelter. And not everyone was duped into an onerous deal.”

“‘I had a guy who called me who owns 70 homes,’ says Stuart broker Michael Morgan. ‘I know a lady who owns 16. It's the room of 1,000 doughnuts. How many can you eat? Two? Three? Well, how many houses can you live in?’”

“‘We were going through my mother's financials and found out she had refinanced through the same broker eight times,’ says Lance Cassal, a Maryland man who once handled mortgage loans — and who has since cofounded a Web site offering licensing and general background information on brokers.”

“There's no shortage of culprits, says Mr. Sichenzia: ‘Everyone who had their little finger on the loan paper.’ Collecting from them could be harder, he says. ‘Most of them are running to the hills and seeking cover under deep rocks.’”

Meanwhile, the mainstream media continues to run stories where mortgage-industry officials try to talk troubled homeowners out of allowing their home to fall into foreclosure. The Miami Herald ran an article written by George Joseph, the president and CEO of the Dade County Federal Credit Union, where he encourages trouble homeowners to keep paying those mortgages:

“South Floridians who are facing foreclosure in the wake of the mortgage boom meltdown are not without hope.”

“They can expect to encounter significant difficulties, but many will find that they will not lose their home or ruin their credit if they take a proactive and determined approach in negotiating a ''workout'' with their loan servicing company and their lender.”

“Foreclosure filings nationwide in August soared to nearly 244,000, up 36 percent from the previous month and more than double the number in August 2006, according to home loan database RealtyTrac. The company reports that the filings in Miami-Dade and Broward counties totaled 12,441 in August, which is up from 8,625 in August 2006, an increase of more than 44 percent. Experts predict that the foreclosures will continue to rise, as many adjustable rate mortgages will reset to higher rates in the near future.”

“Foreclosures also take a significant toll on the individual borrowers as well as the region's economy and property values. Foreclosures damage borrowers' credit scores, making it more costly, if not impossible, for them to secure other loans. Ultimately, these borrowers reduce their purchases of goods and services, which has a negative impact on local businesses. The foreclosed homes that become owned by lenders are usually sold below market value, which impacts property values for all surrounding homes. In addition, local governments lose property taxes as the foreclosed properties sit idle.”

Many bloggers, including yours truly, have been talking about affordability for years. Now, a few mainstream media folks are finally seeing the light (even thoug it was a blazing spotlight shining right in their faces). Linda Rawls, a reporter with The Palm Beach Post explains the painfully obvious:

“Our take: Home sales have fallen because people can't afford to buy them anymore. Home prices have far outpaced income.”

“The ratio of home prices to income should be about 3-to-1, federal guidelines say.” [Actually, the federal guidelines say that 3-to-1 should be the MAXIMUM]

“In Palm Beach County, the ratio was 7-to-1 in last year's study by Housing Leadership of Palm Beach County. This year's report, we are told, should be out soon.”

“The new-home market is faring even worse than the resale.”

“‘For all practical purposes,’ Moody's Economy.com declared this month, the new-home market is ‘dead.’”

“Home builder sentiment has fallen to its lowest rating in the history of the National Association of Home Builders' index. The oft-quoted index was launched in 1985.”

“‘The seasonally adjusted numbers are the lowest on record in October for every subcategory, as they have been every month since spring began,’ economist Patrick McPherron noted in his eulogy. ‘The bottom of this market will not be reached until there is another significant decline in the cost to prospective buyers, both in house prices and mortgage rates.’”

The Palm Beach Post reports on the mortgage industry’s return to basics:

“An abrupt shift back to the basics of mortgage lending has many house hunters nervous because several once-popular types of loans are disappearing.”

“With urging from regulators, lenders faced with growing piles of bad loans have clamped down on the kinds of mortgages they are willing to offer. That is most strongly affecting people who lack proof of income, cash reserves or good credit. But others should still be able to find a home loan.”

“Most house hunters must once again bring money to the table because the no-down-payment loans that four out of 10 first-time home buyers used during the boom years are hard to come by. Many lenders now want at least 5 percent down, and the more, the better.”

“Many lenders have stopped making piggyback loans because the second loan poses more risk than they are willing to take. If a homeowner loses a house, proceeds from its sale would go toward paying off the first mortgage. Usually, there would be little, if any, money left to cover the second.”

“Also out of favor, and nearly impossible to find, are low- or no-documentation loans, which had been devised for people who were unwilling or unable to verify their incomes.”

The Miami Herald discussed the falling stock price of a local bank:

“As housing market losses pile up, Florida's largest locally headquartered home lender finds itself in the center of the storm.”

“Amid South Florida's housing meltdown, share prices at even highly capitalized BankUnited have taken it on the chin.”

“BankUnited Financial, the holding company for the bank, has seen its stock price drop from around $27 a share in January -- just before it announced record earnings but a spike in problem loans -- to below $11 this past week, after it forecast lower fourth-quarter earnings. Final results for the quarter that ended Sept. 30 will be announced on Tuesday.”

“This drop has frustrated management at BankUnited, the largest bank headquartered in Florida with $15 billion in assets. The institution says it has none of the problematic subprime loans that triggered the current mess, no piggyback loans, and even halted condo construction lending two years before the bottom fell out of the frothy housing market.”

“Ortiz and BankUnited Chairman and Chief Executive Alfred R. Camner are not denying that the current downturn is rough and that the lion's share of the bank's loans are home mortgages. Or even that more than half of its mortgages are option-ARM, adjustable rate mortgages, which allow the borrower to make full payment, pay only interest or even less than the full interest each month.”

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Another great article.
You know, some people accuse the press and the SS of media blitzing the RE market into meltdown, which of course is silly.
But I do think the Miami Herald was pimping the market well into the meltdown.
They had a series on the housing boom, which they left on their site forever, even after the decline, giving the illusion that it was still going on, long after the glut of houses became an issue.
I wrote several letters to the editor expressing my opinion that they were misleading the public, but of course never heard from them, and they continued the series. I eventually stopped reading the MH since they had so little coverage of the Bubble and deflation issues surrounding it.
I felt they were very biased toward the Housing Boom and it was affecting their coverage of related stories.
I also noticed that Dade was slower in succumbing to the deflation than Broward and Palm Beach, so I guess it helped rope a few more suckers into the net prior to the inevitable collapse.

Anonymous said...

SFHB,

Since you're in finance, maybe you can help me understand this Super-SIV issue better.

Based on what I've read, it seems to me that the banks are basically trying to delay the pricing of their securities, hoping that the market recovers in the meantime.

The current market is suspicious of every type of derivative right now, mainly because of the subprime mess. However, I imagine that this is affecting the value of securities that are not bad--causing the price to drop on them even though there is no good reason for it.

I assume the banks are hoping that the SIV can buy them some time to sort the bad stuff from the good stuff so as not to negatively affect the values of the good stuff. Once the market realizes that not ALL of the derivatives are bad, they should be more willing to buy at a price that justifies the level of risk for that particular security.

In other words, the banks feel that a lot of their securities are being unjustifiably under-valued right now because of the nervousness in the market, and are trying to delay marking them until the market settles down.

Do I have this right? It's all a little over my head, so I'm just trying to see if I have a general understanding of this issue.

Anonymous said...

4010 NE 31 Ave (Lighthouse Point)

Although currently listed at $3,995,000, $255,000 below the purchase price, this house is still overpriced by $1 million and will eventually sell for $2,750,000.

There is an UNPAID 2006 tax bill of $72,000 and the '07 taxes of $69,000 are due next month.

Not sure what % is financed but it is posible that the keys will soon be left on the granite counter for the bank.

South Florida Housing Bubble said...

I think what you wrote is generally correct about the Super-SIV. It does allow the banks to prop up the prices of their mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) that are under-valued on the open market right now.

However, I thinkit also has a lot to do more to do with accounting standards than is being covered in the general press.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) puts out rules on how companies much account for certain transaction.

FASB passed one of those rules, FAS 140 (Accounting for Transfers and Servicing of Financial
Assets and Extinguishments of Liabilities), late in 2000 -- not entirely coincidentally the beginning of the housing boom. This standard allowed banks to transfer MBSs off their balance sheet and recognize the associated profits from the sale.

The problem with FAS 140 is that in order to remove the asset from its books, the bank "not maintain effective control over the transferred assets." This wasn't a problem as long as the borrowers were paying their loans.

However, once people started to default and/or ask for restructing, the banks, who were often still servicing the loans, needed to start "maintaining effective control" or risk having all those mortages end in foreclosure.

So, the banks are now stuck between a rock and a hard place. They can either: (1) Maintain control over the assets by allowing borrowers to restructure and adding the assets back on their balance sheets as required by FAS 104, or (2) Keep the MBSs off their balance sheets and watching them go down in flames.

The solution to this problem is the Super-SIV. This will allow the banks to transfer all these MBSs to a new entity. The Super-SIV will be able to service the loans (similar to the way Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae manager their portfolios). The Super-SIV will maintain control. So, they will comply with FAS 140, which means they will be able to keep all these crappy mortgages off their balance sheets.

It's all pretty brilliant if you ask me. It preserves the price as you mentioned. It allows the banks to actively manage these mortgages. And, it keeps the underlying assets off their books.

Still, in the long run, the bank will have to recognize the lossed value of the MBSs. However, rather than taking one-time, massive write-off, they can write the MBS slowly over time as they become progressive worthless.

It's enough to make you head spin. The pace of the developments are amazing.

For those that are interested, I posted some good links on SIVs and the Super SIV on this thread:

Other thread on SIVs

Also, here's the best explanation of FAS 140 that I have been able to find:

CPA Journal: "Securitization: A Platform to Debate Accounting"

Anonymous said...

SFHB,

2000 was around the time I recall hearing about them changing the regulations put in place after the great depression prohibiting banks from interacting with wall street.
It was around that time that investment advisor's (investment salesmen) started appearing in my banks lobbies.
I keep thinking this is all deja vu, a repeat of what we forgot we learned from the 1920's.

Anonymous said...

How Many Additional Units were Built n put on the tax books; during the SAME period --What are the REAL Numbers....

Foreclosure filings nationwide in August soared to nearly 244,000, up 36 percent from the previous month and more than double the number in August 2006, according to home loan database RealtyTrac. The company reports that the filings in Miami-Dade and Broward counties totaled 12,441 in August, which is up from 8,625 in August 2006, an increase of more than 44 percent. Experts predict that the foreclosures will continue

Anonymous said...

I would like anyone's opinion on how the 'portablity' availability may affect the sfh price declines. I know many existing homeowners here will love this one. I wonder if realtors are telling their clients to hang on to the high prices based on portability becoming an option. Cerainly someone who can port a 3k tax is at an advantage to someone who will have to pay 15k in tax. What does everyone think. I was just getting used to the sfh price declines and thinking that someday I may actually be able to afford a house in So Florida.

Anonymous said...

"I would like anyone's opinion on how the 'portablity' availability may affect the sfh price declines"

Portability would help prop up the market a little bit, because you would have some current local owners that either want to upsize or downsize turn into buyers (since the tax bill difference would be less than before).

However, taxes are only a small part of the equation. Prices will still fall no matter what happens to taxes. Even if you cut tax bills in half for potential buyers, it still doesn't change the mortgage payment. If the price is still too high, people can't afford to buy it--that's essentially the heart of the problem the real estate market has right now.

The old formula for affordability used to be 3x income. Right now, prices are still about 6-7x income. They have a ways to go before they become affordable to most buyers. They only way people were paying these high prices was with exotic mortgages--which you won't see again for a long time--or by temporarily devoting a greater percentage of their income to their payment, which can only last so long.

Plus, keep in mind that the portability still keeps new buyers out of the market (they don't benefit).

Of all the tax plans I've seen, portability would benefit the real estate market the least. The "super-exemption" that was struck down by a court would have benefited more potential buyers than portability would.

All in all, it's not a big issue in the whole scheme of things. Something should be done about taxes, but prices will continue to fall until they meet up with fundamentals.

Anonymous said...

Anon,
(Next time you comment,under choose an identity, click 'other' and make up a name. No need to log in or sign up, you still remain anon with an aka.

Portibility will bring more buyers into the market, but it will bring an equal amount of SELLERS, since all soh people own an existing home.
So with the possible exception of the few who choose to convert their existing home into a rental, there will be another wave of homes for sale on the market, possibly before they even buy another place.
And IMNSHO since most soh's are penny pincher's, they will demand top dollar for their homes, thus discouraging other potential buyers.
We all know that 2000 prices will stimulate sales.

Anonymous said...

sr,

What surprises me is the one owner is an Anastasio. I would bet they are related to Joe and Paula Anastasio, the VERY active realtors in Lighthouse Point.
WHAT were they thinking buying in Feb 2006?!

Anonymous said...

140,

You are probably correct, it appears the listing agent is Paula Anastasio.

Anonymous said...

SR,

No honor among thieves. Blood is NOT thicker than money.
Probably convinced them it was time for prices to rage upward again.
LOL