Wednesday, October 31, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Various in Broward)

Thank you to "140 dollars per sq foot " for providing us with this F@cked Buyer. He currently "owns" four homes in Broward County that have all been listed on the MLS for an extended period of time. Note that, although House #3 is being sold at a significant "profit," it is listed as a short sale.


House # 1: 5264 E 3Rd Av, Oakland Park, FL 33334


House #2: 2502 N 54Th St, Tamarac, FL 33309

House #3: 227 Lakeview Dr Unit: 202, Weston, FL 33326

House #4: 2121 E 32Nd St, Lighthouse Point, FL 33064

New request: I am looking to add "buyers" like this that have multiple distressed properties for sale. If you know of any, please provide a link or MLS listing to one of their properties. I want to highlight some of speculators that were caught holding multiple properties.




An unfair tax may become even more unfair

The Florida Legislator recently passed a ballot initiative that could turn our current property tax into one of the most biased, unfair tax schemes in the United States.

Under out current “Save out Homes” (SOH) plan, the assessed values of homesteaded properties can only go up by 3% per year. The plan had a noble purpose; it was design to prevent homeowners from getting priced out of their homes due to tax increases.

While the plan did have good intentions, there were many flaws in the plan. First, SOH only protected the assessed values of homestead homes, which is only portion of the tax equation. It never restricted the other half of the equation, millage rates. This means that the taxing authorities still have the ability to raise taxes far in excess of the 3% annual cap simply by raising millage rates. This hasn’t been a significant issue since SOH passed in 1992, mainly because home values have generally increased in Florida. However, as home values start to drop at a rate in excess of 3% per year, taxing authorities will have to find ways to overcome budget shortfalls. They can solve this by simply increasing millage rates, effectively eliminating the tax increase protection of SOH.

Another significant flaw in SOH is the fixed 3% rate, which has no protection from inflation. Again, this hasn’t been an issue since its passage in 1992 because overall inflation has generally hovered around that 3%. However, if we ever return to the double-digit inflation that we experience in the 1970s, the fixed-3% rate will become significant. In the face of rapidly rising prices due to high inflation, taxing authorities will be forced to increase millage rates. It is beyond me why SOH was ever passed with the 3% cap rather than a cap that adjusted with changed in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Still, the most significant flaw in SOH is its inherent unfairness. For the first nine years of its life, SOH worked well because home prices generally did not increase much more than 3%. However, between 2001 and 2005, most areas in Florida experienced dramatic increases in home values, often more than 200%. As a result, homeowners that purchased homes before 2001 are often pay very little in taxes when compared to homeowners who purchased in recent years.

Up until this time, I had little concern about SOH because I knew the deflation of the bubble would ultimately take care of some of the inequities. To show how the inequities would be solved through housing deflation consider two homeowners: one that bought his home in 2000 for $100,000 and one that bought an identical home in 2005 for $300,000. Assuming a 2% millage rate, in 2005 the homeowners would pay:

Homeowner 1:

2005 SOH assessed value (capped by 3% increase) = $115,927 - $25,000 homestead exemption = $90,927 taxable base x 2% millage rate = 2005 property tax of $1,819

Homeowner 2:

2005 assessed value = $300,000 - $25,000 homestead exemption = $275,000 taxable base x 2% millage rate = 2005 property tax of $5,500

Obviously this is clearly unfair because Homeowner 1 is paying only 33% of the tax paid by Homeowner 2. They pay vastly different amounts even though they are living in the same home and may be consuming identical levels of public services (fire, police, schools, roads, etc.).

However, I think things will eventually things will even out. Assume by 2009, the two homes are now worth $150,000. Also assume that the taxing authorities increase the millage rates to 2.5% to make up for the properties’ devaluations:

Homeowner 1:

2009 SOH assessed value (capped by 3% increase) = $130,477 - $50,000 homestead exemption = $105,477 taxable base x 2.5% millage rate = 2009 property tax of $2,637

Homeowner 2:

2009 assessed value = $150,000 - $25,000 homestead exemption = $125,000 taxable base x 2.5% millage rate = 2005 property tax of $3,125

Following the devaluation, the taxes paid by the two homeowners are much more equitable. Now, Homeowner 1 is paying 84% of the tax paid by Homeowner 2. Over time, the two taxpayers would probably end up paying similar amounts in tax.

However, if this new ballot initiative passes, much of the equality created by housing devaluation is eliminated. The new initiative consists of two main changes: an increase of the homestead exemption to $50,000 and the “portability” of SOH.

The increase in the homestead exemption will have little impact on equality other than increasing taxes on non-homesteaded properties. However, the portability provision may be one of the most unfair tax proposals I have ever seen.

Under the portability proposal, homeowners can “take” up to $500,000 in SOH differential (the difference between the actual assessed value versus the SOH value) when they move from one homestead to another. This means homeowners that purchased prior to 2000 and live in high-valued homes can pay significantly reduced property taxes.

To illustrate what will happen if this passes, lets add a third homeowner to our 2009 comparison. In this case, the third homeowner sells a home in 2009 that has a $110,000 in SOH differential. He then immediately downsizes and purchases a home that is identical to Homeowner 1 and Homeowner 2. Here’s what this third homeowner will pay on newly purchase home under the portability proposal:

Homeowner 3:

2009 assessed value = $150,000 - $110,000 portable SOH differential - $50,000 homestead exception = $0.00 taxable value (you can’t go negative) x 2.5% millage rate = 2009 property tax of $0.00

So, under the new proposal, in this scenario, you will have three neighbors all living side-by-side in identical homes. All three consume identical amount of public services. Homeowner 1 pays $2,137 in annual property tax (after accounting for the increase homestead exemption). Homeowner 2 pays $2,500. Homeowner 3 pays nothing.

Do you think this is fair?

Keep in mind that this not only has a disproportionate benefit for those who bought prior to 2000, it also has a disproportionate benefit for the extremely wealthy because they’re much more likely to have substantial SOH differentials than the middle class and working poor. In effect, this increases the already regressive nature of Florida’s property tax system.

If this doesn’t convince you, consider this: If this the voters pass this initiative, there will be some homeowners living in homes that are worth nearly $520,000 that will pay NOTHING in property taxes (at least in the short term) because they used the benefits of portability.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Ft. Lauderdale)

While the prices of condos within walking distance to the beach seem to have stickier prices, we're still starting to see some significant price drops. This one is priced 17% below its purchase price 17 months ago.

720 ORTON AV # 406, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33304

New request: I am looking to add "buyers" that have multiple distressed properties for sale. If you know of any, please provide a link or MLS listing to one of their properties. I want to highlight some of speculators that were caught holding multiple properties.

Monday, October 29, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Miramar)

These F@cked Buyers bought two townhouses in the same development. Now they're offering them at prices at least 34% off their original purchase price.

I wonder if these F@cked Buyers realize that there are thousands of brand new townhouses going up in the area -- all being offered at prices below their listing prices. But, you need not worry, the listing agent advertises that the unit is being "priced below market." Miramar and Pembroke Pines are toast.

Townhouse #1: 2412 CENTERGATE DR # 202, Miramar, FL 33025


Townhouse #2: 2424 CENTERGATE DR # 203, Miramar, FL 33025

New request: I am looking to add "buyers" that have multiple distressed properties for sale. If you know of any, please provide a link or MLS listing to one of their properties. I want to highlight some of speculators that were caught holding multiple properties.

Sunday, October 28, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Pembroke Pines)

Not surprisingly, the condo conversions are starting to get rocked. This one has virtually no chance of selling at the current listing price despite being 19% below its purchase price 16 months ago.

10885 NW 8TH ST # 10885, Pembroke Pines, FL 33026

New request: I am looking to add "buyers" that have multiple distressed properties for sale. If you know of any, please provide a link or MLS listing to one of their properties. I want to highlight some of speculators that were caught holding multiple properties.

Saturday, October 27, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Pompano Beach)

Remember when people used to mock those of us who said there would be 50% drops in property values? Well, we're starting to see more and more drops in excess of 50% already now, many months (years?) before the eventual bottom. This one is 57% off it June 2006 purchase price.

3002 NW 4TH TE # 4, Pompano Beach, FL 33064

New request: I am looking to add "buyers" that have multiple distressed properties for sale. If you know of any, please provide a link or MLS listing to one of their properties. I want to highlight some of speculators that were caught holding multiple properties.

Friday, October 26, 2007




Today's Local Real Estate News: "We are headed for billions in lost wealth."

The Congress, which once touted record homeownership as a great achievement during the boom, is now suddenly concerned with the aftermath of those records. The L.A. Times reports:

“About 2 million sub-prime borrowers could lose their homes to foreclosure through 2009, costing them $71 billion in housing wealth, a congressional report said Thursday.”

“Sub-prime foreclosure rates will increase as housing prices stagnate or decline, and the effects of the sub-prime mortgage crisis may spill over to the broader economy, according to a report by the Joint Economic Committee released in Washington.”

“‘State by state, the economic costs from the sub-prime debacle are shockingly high,’ said Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), who heads the committee. ‘From New York to California, we are headed for billions in lost wealth, property values and tax revenues.’”

“The report spotlights the foreclosure threat facing borrowers with poor credit as interest rates on adjustable loans reset to higher levels. Sub-prime foreclosures will total about 2 million between 2007 and 2009 if housing prices drop 20% over those three years, the report said.”

“About 1.3 million of the nation's 7.4 million sub-prime borrowers will face foreclosure between this year's third quarter and the fourth quarter of 2009, the report said.”

“California, Florida, Ohio, New York and Texas will be among the hardest-hit states. Sub-prime loans represented 14% of all outstanding U.S. mortgages as of the second quarter of 2007, the report said.”

Following this report, MSNBC got the views of Congressional Democrats on the developing crisis:

“Congressional Democrats are pressing for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage companies, to be given a bigger role in helping struggling borrowers refinance mortgages. However, the proposal is opposed by the administration, which advocates a more limited government response to the crisis.”

“‘If there was a less ideological president, the business community would be happier because there would be much more confidence that somebody was dealing with this,’ said Mr Schumer. A Treasury spokesman dismissed Mr Schumer's criticisms as ‘ridiculous’, saying: ‘The secretary and the president have both called on the senate to take up legislation to help struggling homeowners - it's the Senate that seems to be handcuffed.’”

“Democratic calls for great­er intervention in the mortgage markets fit the party's push for ­govern­ment-led so­lutions to ease the growing sense of economic insecurity in middle class America.”


The Sun-Sentinel gave further details on the boating industry’s troubles in the wake of the housing downturn:

“There will probably be fewer boat builders and brokers around for next year's Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show.”

“‘We're going to see this industry ... shrink, with fewer manufacturers and dealers,’ particularly in the small to mid-size markets, said Irwin Jacobs, chief executive officer of Minneapolis-based Genmar Holdings Inc., one of the globe's biggest recreational boat builders.”

“The dried-up housing market, soaring gasoline prices and the credit crunch are keeping boat buyers at bay, with analysts reporting drops in sales by as much as 15 percent. Several large manufacturers and dealers, including Brunswick Corp. and Marine Max, have cut production and laid off workers.”




Today's F@cked Buyer (Ft. Lauderdale)

Don't worry about this condo's location, it has stainless steel appliances and granite counter tops! The price has dropped 35% in 13 months.

1470 N DIXIE HY # 13, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33304

New request: I am looking to add "buyers" that have multiple distressed properties for sale. If you know of any, please provide a link or MLS listing to one of their properties. I want to highlight some of speculators that were caught holding multiple properties.

Thursday, October 25, 2007




Today's Local Real Estate News: "In the coming weeks and months, buyers should expect sellers to keep dropping home prices."

Housing data came out yesterday and the three major South Florida new papers reported on the situation. The Miami Herald explained:

“Prices of homes and condos in Broward County dropped in September compared with a year ago, a sign that stubborn sellers may finally be accepting the reality that they are no longer able to get the sky-high prices of the boom years.”

“Broward's single-family home sales were off last year's number by 46 percent; condo sales declined 39 percent. But prices also fell -- the median home price down 7 percent year-over-year to $345,200 while condo prices slipped 15 percent to $174,600.”

“In Miami-Dade, single-family home sales were more than cut in half for the month, dropping 53 percent from September 2006. Condo sales were similarly off 47 percent. Home prices were mostly flat at $372,300, and median condo prices rose 2 percent to $275,000.”

“Gabriella Berenyi, a seller in Oakland Park, said she will not budge further on her price.”

“Nearly a year ago she put her three-bedroom lakefront condo up for sale, asking $289,000. She found few interested buyers, and the ones she found couldn't qualify for a mortgage. So she dropped her price to $279,000.”

“‘This has been the worst experience,’ she said.”

“‘But I don't believe in going down too low [on the price] because I invested so much remodeling it. If I go down too low, I can't get any money out of it. So I am trying to rent it out now; people say prices will go up in six months or a year.’”

The Palm Beach Post reported the following:

“The housing decline has been under way for more than a year, and analysts say it could be at least another year before the market plateaus, based on September existing-home sales reports.”

“The median price for an existing single-family home in Palm Beach County dipped to $355,300 in September, down 3 percent from $365,500 in September 2006, as sellers continued to hold out for their asking prices despite heavy market pressures. The number of homes sold in the county fell 17 percent, to 471 from the 566 homes sold in the same month one year ago.”

“In Martin and St. Lucie counties, the news was even worse. The Treasure Coast posted the second-steepest home-price decline in the state. The median price plunged to $202,000, off 17 percent from a year earlier, when the median was $244,300, the Florida Association of Realtors said Wednesday.”

“‘Mortgage money is very tight now,’ said housing analyst Jack McCabe, chief executive of McCabe Research and Consulting in Deerfield Beach. ‘Prices are going to continue to drop. From 2007 to the end of 2009, you're going to see a 35 to 40 percent drop off the market peak.’”

The Miami Herald reports that the housing downturn is not just a local phenomena; it’s a national problem:

“Sales of existing homes had a record decline in September while median home prices fell by the largest amount in nearly a year, reflecting deepening problems in the troubled housing market.”

“Analysts said the current downturn is already more severe than the housing slump of the 1990s. They predicted that before it is resolved, it will rival the 1980-82 housing slump. Back then, the industry was battered by double-digit mortgage rates and the economy was in a steep recession.”

“The National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday that sales of existing homes fell 8 percent in September. It was the largest decline to show up in records dating to 1999. The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 5.04 million existing homes was the slowest pace on record.”

The Sun-Sentinel reports similarly and even used the “C” word (capitulation):

“September's home sales plunged in Broward County, and real estate experts say fewer sales and declining housing prices reflect the continuing trend in South Florida, the state and the nation.”

“Buyers are deterred by the state's property tax and insurance crisis, stiffer mortgage financing requirements owing to credit turmoil, and home prices that many still can't afford. September marks month No. 21 of the region's housing slump.”

“‘The investors are gone. You have the average person trying to put a roof over his head, and prices are still unaffordable,’ said Mike Larson, an analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter.”

“In the coming weeks and months, buyers should expect sellers to keep dropping home prices, experts said.”

“‘In last 60 days, anecdotally we're hearing about a lot more capitulations on the part of sellers,’ said Brad Hunter, a housing analyst with Metrostudy in West Palm Beach.”

“In September, sales of existing homes in Broward County declined 46 percent to 401 from 741 a year ago, the Florida Association of Realtors said Wednesday. Statewide, home sales fell even further in other cities: in Miami, 53 percent; in Orlando, 48 percent, and Fort Myers, 53 percent.”
“‘Sellers need to get a grip,’ said David Dweck, head of the Boca Real Estate Investment Club. Homeowners are not likely to sell their homes if they're not ‘priced slightly below the market and your property is not beautiful,’ he said. ‘Buyers have their pick of the litter.’”

In an amusing article, The Sun-Sentinel reported on bitter flippers who making legal moves to try and recover their pre-construction deposits now that the housing market has tumbled:

“When Jennifer Wigand put down a deposit in 2005 for a condominium in a multi-use development called Veranda at Plantation, she hoped to quickly sell it and use the profits to help pay her law school loans.”

“Then the housing market plunged. Wigand said she wasn't worried because the developer had promised she could back out any time and her money would be returned. But in July, when she asked to take part in that program, Wigand said she was told it had been canceled.”

“Like an increasing number of buyers in South Florida, Wigand last month filed a lawsuit to get out of the deal. Last week, 20 other buyers in Veranda joined her suit.”

“‘I was disappointed that the developers and their agents went back on their word,’ said the 24-year-old Fort Lauderdale resident. ‘I just want my [$39,200] deposit back.’”

“Wigand's two-bedroom, $392,000 condo is scheduled to close on Oct. 30. She said she will forfeit her deposit if the court does not grant her relief.”

“Ori Onn, a real estate agent, signed a contract in 2005 to buy a one-bedroom Phase One condo for $295,000. He put down $59,000 and like Wigand, he planned to flip it.”

“‘They told me they would put it on a resale program if I didn't go through with the deal,’ Onn said, adding he tried but was unable to reach Veranda representatives four times in the last few months to take them up on the offer.”

In an effort to avert foreclosures, Countrywide is starting to deal with some troubled borrowers:

“Countrywide Financial, the nation's largest mortgage lender, said Tuesday it will begin calling borrowers to offer refinancing or modifications on $16 billion in loans with interest rates set to adjust by the end of 2008.”

“But as defaults and foreclosures snowball, the mortgage industry is under increasing pressure to do even more to help financially strapped borrowers hang on to their homes.”

“‘People are talking about it, saying it might be necessary, but there's not a lot of it going on,’ said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, an independent trade publication.”

“So far this year, Calabasas, Calif.-based Countrywide said it has completed about 20,000 loan modifications -- a figure that represents less than 5 percent of the more than 500,000 loans the lender reports were behind in payments as of last month.”

“The figure amounts to about 24 percent of the roughly 82,000 loans the company said were in foreclosure.”

Now that homeowners no longer own homes that they can use as ATMs, the automobile and boating industries are suffering. Yesterday, local auto dealer giant, AutoNation, reported:

“The slumping housing market continues to leave vehicle sales in the slow lane at Fort Lauderdale's AutoNation.”

“AutoNation sold 9,632 fewer new vehicles in the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared to a year ago, a decline of almost 10 percent.”

“That drop was driven by softness in Florida and California, which account for half of AutoNation's new-vehicle business and where the housing slump has been most severe. Sales were down 11 percent in those two states.”

“Falling home values mean consumers can't as easily tap the equity to buy vehicles. And the construction slowdown has spilled over to light-truck sales.”

“‘Things will be difficult for at least [another] year,’ said Mike Jackson, AutoNation's chairman and chief executive. ‘There is no shortcut to better days, but the stabilization process has begun,’ because of last month's interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Still, he said further cuts are needed.”

Sales in the boating industry show which financial classes are being affected by the housing downturn. The Miami Herald reports:

“As the housing slump and the sputtering U.S. economy spur consumers to cut back, much of the boating industry is in the doldrums. The number of powerboats sold is expected to plunge about 10 percent this year, and many exhibitors at the show, which opens Thursday, are cautious about prospects.”

“Yet builders of superyachts -- boats 80 feet or longer -- have full order books with delivery dates well into the next decade.”

“‘The megayacht market is very resilient,’ says Frank Herhold, executive director of the Marine Industries Association of South Florida, which owns the Fort Lauderdale show, the world's largest in terms of exhibition space. ‘It looks like full speed ahead.’”




Today's F@cked Buyer (Tamarac)

I am constantly amazed at how much peopler have spent on their purchases. This person spent more than a quarter-million dollars on a two-bedroom townhouse in Tamarac -- AFTER the market had already crashed. What were they thinking? Their asking price is now 26% off the purchase price from only one year ago.

8805 S Isles Cr Unit: 8805, Tamarac, FL 33321


New request: I am looking to add "buyers" that have multiple distressed properties for sale. If you know of any, please provide a link or MLS listing to one of their properties. I want to highlight some of speculators that were caught holding multiple properties.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Palm Beach Gardens)

This asking price on this home is 31% off the purchase price from only 15 months ago.

9151 VILLA PALMA LANE, Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33418

New request: I am looking to add "buyers" that have multiple distressed properties for sale. If you know of any, please provide a link or MLS listing to one of their properties. I want to highlight some of speculators that were caught holding multiple properties.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Coral Springs)

This home was originally listed for $414,000 70 days ago. Now, it's being offered at a 20% reduction from its purchase price a little over one year ago. This home shows a trend that I have been seeing lately. The "owner" has approximately $366,000 of outstanding loans on this home with a single lender. Yet, the lender is allowing this home to be offered as a short sale at $309,000. This shows that lenders are increasingly willing to accept large losses on short sales.

8548 57Th Dr, Coral Springs, FL 33067

New request: I am looking to add "buyers" that have multiple distressed properties for sale. If you know of any, please provide a link or MLS listing to one of their properties. I want to highlight some of speculators that were caught holding multiple properties.

Update: Inventories continue to increase while prices continue to drop

Towards the end of each month, I update the trends in South Florida housing inventory and the Median Listing Price (read this previous post that explains why I use Median Listing Price instead of Median Sales Price). As with every other month, the trends continue.

Inventory is up 0.56% this month over last month. It is now up 19.24% since this time last year. Median Listing Price is down to $315,000, a 1.53% decrease since last month and a 11.14% since last year.

What's interesting in this month's trends is it appears that the increases in inventory seem to be slowing. At the same time, the price drops seem to be accelerating. It is too early to tell if these are real trends or simply one-month anomalies. It will be interesting to see if these two new trends will continue next month.

The following graphs show the trends since April 2006 when HousingTracker.net (my source) started tracking the data:










Monday, October 22, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Miami -- Brickell)

While it seems like Dade County has been moving downward at a slower pace than Palm Beach and Broward Counties, the high-rise condo market in Dade is finally starting to implode. With all the new construction coming online, I expect this implosion to accelerate in the coming month. Here's one example of a short sale that will see more than a quarter-million dollar loss.

2101 BRICKELL AV # 3405, Miami, FL 33129

New request: I am looking to add "buyers" that have multiple distressed properties for sale. If you know of any, please provide a link or MLS listing to one of their properties. I want to highlight some of speculators that were caught holding multiple properties.




Today's Local Real Estate News: "There's no shortage of culprits."

In a cent article, The Palm Beach Post tried to answer the blame game question:

“‘The thing we have the most difficulty doing nowadays is figuring out who has legitimately been taken advantage of, as opposed to who went into the transaction with their eyes open,’ says Mr. Sichenzia, now lead investigator for the Deerfield Beach law firm of Glinn Somera & Silva, which handles foreclosure cases.”

“That's because so many had something to gain from the mortgage bubble, says Bill Davis, president of Private Funding Specialists and past president of the Florida Association of Mortgage Brokers' Palm Beach County region — and many of those people went about their business winking and nodding. ‘It's everybody,’ he says. ‘The Federal Reserve participated, the big lenders played a part, the credit ratings agencies had a part, so did hedge funds and borrowers, appraisers.’”

“The local results: In the six months ending July 1 of this year alone, more than $1 billion in mortgages defaulted in Palm Beach County and along the Treasure Coast. Not every borrower, though, was seeking shelter. And not everyone was duped into an onerous deal.”

“‘I had a guy who called me who owns 70 homes,’ says Stuart broker Michael Morgan. ‘I know a lady who owns 16. It's the room of 1,000 doughnuts. How many can you eat? Two? Three? Well, how many houses can you live in?’”

“‘We were going through my mother's financials and found out she had refinanced through the same broker eight times,’ says Lance Cassal, a Maryland man who once handled mortgage loans — and who has since cofounded a Web site offering licensing and general background information on brokers.”

“There's no shortage of culprits, says Mr. Sichenzia: ‘Everyone who had their little finger on the loan paper.’ Collecting from them could be harder, he says. ‘Most of them are running to the hills and seeking cover under deep rocks.’”

Meanwhile, the mainstream media continues to run stories where mortgage-industry officials try to talk troubled homeowners out of allowing their home to fall into foreclosure. The Miami Herald ran an article written by George Joseph, the president and CEO of the Dade County Federal Credit Union, where he encourages trouble homeowners to keep paying those mortgages:

“South Floridians who are facing foreclosure in the wake of the mortgage boom meltdown are not without hope.”

“They can expect to encounter significant difficulties, but many will find that they will not lose their home or ruin their credit if they take a proactive and determined approach in negotiating a ''workout'' with their loan servicing company and their lender.”

“Foreclosure filings nationwide in August soared to nearly 244,000, up 36 percent from the previous month and more than double the number in August 2006, according to home loan database RealtyTrac. The company reports that the filings in Miami-Dade and Broward counties totaled 12,441 in August, which is up from 8,625 in August 2006, an increase of more than 44 percent. Experts predict that the foreclosures will continue to rise, as many adjustable rate mortgages will reset to higher rates in the near future.”

“Foreclosures also take a significant toll on the individual borrowers as well as the region's economy and property values. Foreclosures damage borrowers' credit scores, making it more costly, if not impossible, for them to secure other loans. Ultimately, these borrowers reduce their purchases of goods and services, which has a negative impact on local businesses. The foreclosed homes that become owned by lenders are usually sold below market value, which impacts property values for all surrounding homes. In addition, local governments lose property taxes as the foreclosed properties sit idle.”

Many bloggers, including yours truly, have been talking about affordability for years. Now, a few mainstream media folks are finally seeing the light (even thoug it was a blazing spotlight shining right in their faces). Linda Rawls, a reporter with The Palm Beach Post explains the painfully obvious:

“Our take: Home sales have fallen because people can't afford to buy them anymore. Home prices have far outpaced income.”

“The ratio of home prices to income should be about 3-to-1, federal guidelines say.” [Actually, the federal guidelines say that 3-to-1 should be the MAXIMUM]

“In Palm Beach County, the ratio was 7-to-1 in last year's study by Housing Leadership of Palm Beach County. This year's report, we are told, should be out soon.”

“The new-home market is faring even worse than the resale.”

“‘For all practical purposes,’ Moody's Economy.com declared this month, the new-home market is ‘dead.’”

“Home builder sentiment has fallen to its lowest rating in the history of the National Association of Home Builders' index. The oft-quoted index was launched in 1985.”

“‘The seasonally adjusted numbers are the lowest on record in October for every subcategory, as they have been every month since spring began,’ economist Patrick McPherron noted in his eulogy. ‘The bottom of this market will not be reached until there is another significant decline in the cost to prospective buyers, both in house prices and mortgage rates.’”

The Palm Beach Post reports on the mortgage industry’s return to basics:

“An abrupt shift back to the basics of mortgage lending has many house hunters nervous because several once-popular types of loans are disappearing.”

“With urging from regulators, lenders faced with growing piles of bad loans have clamped down on the kinds of mortgages they are willing to offer. That is most strongly affecting people who lack proof of income, cash reserves or good credit. But others should still be able to find a home loan.”

“Most house hunters must once again bring money to the table because the no-down-payment loans that four out of 10 first-time home buyers used during the boom years are hard to come by. Many lenders now want at least 5 percent down, and the more, the better.”

“Many lenders have stopped making piggyback loans because the second loan poses more risk than they are willing to take. If a homeowner loses a house, proceeds from its sale would go toward paying off the first mortgage. Usually, there would be little, if any, money left to cover the second.”

“Also out of favor, and nearly impossible to find, are low- or no-documentation loans, which had been devised for people who were unwilling or unable to verify their incomes.”

The Miami Herald discussed the falling stock price of a local bank:

“As housing market losses pile up, Florida's largest locally headquartered home lender finds itself in the center of the storm.”

“Amid South Florida's housing meltdown, share prices at even highly capitalized BankUnited have taken it on the chin.”

“BankUnited Financial, the holding company for the bank, has seen its stock price drop from around $27 a share in January -- just before it announced record earnings but a spike in problem loans -- to below $11 this past week, after it forecast lower fourth-quarter earnings. Final results for the quarter that ended Sept. 30 will be announced on Tuesday.”

“This drop has frustrated management at BankUnited, the largest bank headquartered in Florida with $15 billion in assets. The institution says it has none of the problematic subprime loans that triggered the current mess, no piggyback loans, and even halted condo construction lending two years before the bottom fell out of the frothy housing market.”

“Ortiz and BankUnited Chairman and Chief Executive Alfred R. Camner are not denying that the current downturn is rough and that the lion's share of the bank's loans are home mortgages. Or even that more than half of its mortgages are option-ARM, adjustable rate mortgages, which allow the borrower to make full payment, pay only interest or even less than the full interest each month.”

Sunday, October 21, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Coral Springs)

Thank you to "HappyRenting" for this pre-foreclosure listing. In just 14 months, the price on this home has dropped by 33%. Still, it remains over-priced based on other home selling in the area.

4333 NW 88 TER, CORAL SPRINGS FL 33065

New request: I am looking to add "buyers" that have multiple distressed properties for sale. If you know of any, please provide a link or MLS listing to one of their properties. I want to highlight some of speculators that were caught holding multiple properties.

Saturday, October 20, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Lighthouse Point)

Thank you to "Ms. Jupiter" for providing this one. In the vast majority of these daily F@cked Buyer postings, the "buyer" has little or no money invested in the home. The real risk and often the real losses come from the lender. However, in this case, it appears there is only a $500,000 mortgage outstanding on the home.

2340 48Th St, Lighthouse Point, FL 33064


New request: I am looking to highlight "buyers" that have multiple distressed properties for sale. If you know of any, please provide a link or MLS listing to one of their properties and I'll look up the rest. I want to highlight some of speculators that were caught holding multiple properties.

Friday, October 19, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Plantation)

In the comments section of an earlier post, I mentioned that the foreclosure process seems to be taking much longer than it has in the past.

This home is a perfect example. GMAC, the mortgage holder, first filed a Lis Pendens on this homeowner on 11/6/07. It took GMAC until 7/13/07 to get a final judgment on this home. To this date, the County Clerk hasn't shown the deed transfer yet. However, since it was just listed for sale, I imagine that the deed transfer happened in the past couple days and the Clerk's website just doesn't reflect it yet.

In other words, it took around 11 months from the time of the first court filing until it was listed on the MLS. Keep in mind that the homeowner probaby missed two or three payments before the intial court filing. These sort of delays seem commonplace.

7201 10Th Ct, Plantation, FL 33313


I need your help with this daily feature. Do you know of a F@cked Buyer? Just add the MLS number or the FSBO link in the comments section and I will add it to an this daily update in the future.




Today's Local Real Estate News: "I have never seen housing credit conditions change so significantly over such a short period of time."

Bank are starting disclose their losses associated with mortgage meltdown. The Palm Beach Post reports:

“Bank of America Corp., the nation's second-largest bank, said Thursday its profit fell 32 percent in the third quarter as trading losses and write-downs on a wide variety of loans offset solid revenue growth in most businesses.”

“Investment banking revenue fell 44 percent from a year ago as sales and trading-revenue declined. The bank wrote down $247 million for leveraged loans and other financing commitments, and suffered a $607 million trading loss.”

“It also had a $527 million loss related to structured products, including asset- and residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations.”

“‘Bank of America's trading losses in third quarter were significant and also worse than peers while marks taken on leverage loans and mortgage assets seem lower than others,’ wrote Goldman Sachs analyst Lori B. Appelbaum in a research note. ‘Lower marks potentially reflect Bank of America's lower risk exposure in these areas.’”

Capital One also saw large losses associated with the mortgage mess:

:Capital One Financial Corp. posted a third-quarter net loss Thursday, hurt by charges from shutting down its GreenPoint Mortgage business.”

“The McLean, Va.-based company, a credit card issuer that continues to expand into retail banking, said its third-quarter net loss totaled $81.6 million, or 21 cents per share, in the July-September period, compared with a profit of $587.8 million, or $1.89 per share, in the year-ago quarter.”

“Excluding the company's $898 million charge related to the shutdown of its troubled GreenPoint Mortgage unit, Capital One posted third-quarter earnings of $2.09 per share.”

“As the nation's housing market has cooled, the mortgage lending industry has struggled with a dramatic rise in mortgage defaults and foreclosures. Many homebuyers have been forced into default or foreclose because they haven't been able to sell their homes or end up owing more than their home is worth.”

“As a result, it has become more difficult for lenders like GreenPoint to sell the mortgages they originate to investors.”

SunTrust wasn’t spared:

“SunTrust Banks Inc. said Thursday its profit fell 23 percent during the third quarter, as the Atlanta-based banking giant wrestled with rising mortgage-related losses and ongoing costs of work-force reductions and streamlining.”

“‘We are not immune to the deterioration in the housing market and related turmoil in the capital markets, and change in the credit cycle,’ James Wells, SunTrust's president and chief executive officer, said in a written statement.”

“SunTrust, already in the middle of a companywide downsizing and real estate sell-off, said it is considering even more restructuring in the months ahead.”

First Horizon also announced losses:

“First Horizon National Corp. posted a loss of $14.2 million in the third quarter as the mortgage banking business continued to be a drag on profits.”

“The company's mortgage banking division had a loss of $45.8 million for the quarter, hurt primarily by what the company was able to resell the mortgages for in the jittery secondary market.”

WaMu wasn’t left out:

“Washington Mutual Inc.'s third-quarter profit shrank 72 percent as sagging home prices made it harder for borrowers to pay their bills and hurt the value of the bank's portfolio of mortgage loans.”

“The third-biggest home lender on Wednesday reported quarterly profit of $210 million, or 23 cents per share, compared with profit of $748 million, or 77 cents per share, a year earlier.”

“Washington Mutual socked away $967 million in the third quarter to prepare for borrowers defaulting on their debt, mostly mortgages and credit card loans. The reserve is nearly six times bigger than the provision in the same quarter last year.”

“‘I have never seen housing credit conditions change so significantly over such a short period of time, nor can I remember a period when there was less clarity about near-term housing and credit trends,’ Chief Financial Officer Tom Casey told financial analysts.”

Meanwhile, local homebuilder, Levitt & Sons, seem to be clutching its last straws:

“Levitt & Sons, the home builder that invented suburbia when it developed Levittown, Long Island, 60 years ago, is in deep trouble.”

“The Fort Lauderdale-based company has stopped construction of homes in all its Florida subdivisions, including the Cascades at Sarasota, as it attempts to renegotiate its massive debt.”

“‘Levitt & Sons is currently in discussions with lenders and has told its subcontractors that at least for now they should stop work,’ said Michael Freitag, a spokesman for the home builder's parent, Levitt Corp.”

“Numerous big builders with a heavy Florida presence -- including Miami-based Lennar Corp., The St. Joe Co. in Jacksonville and WCI Communities in Bonita Springs -- have announced write-offs, red ink, layoffs, or a combination of the three.”

“‘Every builder is taking hits,’ said Jack McCabe, a Deerfield Beach consultant who advises developers and investors on Florida real estate trends. ‘It doesn't matter how big they are, how good they are. Everybody is taking hits, some worse that others.’”

Dade-County-based Watsco announced a loss:

“Shares in Watsco (WSO) fell 94 cents to $40.70 Thursday after the Coconut Grove-based distributor of heating and cooling equipment reported worse than expected profits.”

“Watsco reported that third-quarter earnings fell 13 percent, due in part to a slowdown in home building.”

“Watsco also reduced its fiscal year 2007 outlook on Thursday, as the housing slowdown and pricing pressures persist.”

With all this terrible earnings news, it’s not surprising that jobless claims are climbing:

“The number of newly laid off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits shot up by the largest amount since early February, a far bigger increase than had been expected.”

“The Labor Department reported Thursday that applications for jobless benefits hit 337,000 last week, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week. That was the biggest one-week surge since jobless claims jumped 42,000 the week of Feb. 10.”

“The increase was four times larger than the gain of 6,000 that economists had been expecting and could be a sign that the labor market is starting to weaken under the impact of a severe downturn in housing and the credit crisis that jolted financial markets in August.”

“Earlier this week, both Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that the housing crisis was likely to last longer than had been expected.”

“Construction of new homes and apartments plunged to a 14-year low in September while the National Association of Home Builders' survey of builder confidence plunged in early October to the lowest level ever recorded in the 22-year history of the survey.”

Finally, the Palm Beach Post is reporting that local rental prices are stagnant:

“Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast - two of the hottest real estate markets in the nation during the housing boom - kept relatively high rental rates steady in the third quarter of this year, according to a RealFacts study of the nation's metropolitan areas released today.”

“The average rent for an apartment in Palm Beach County from July through September was $1,146, relatively unchanged from the same period a year ago, when it was $1,141, RealFacts said. The study averaged rents for all unit sizes for those figures. It also tracked rents by apartment size.”

“Declining occupancy is a trend that confuses Bates, given that other data-analysis companies have documented a tsunami of foreclosures in what has come to be known as the ‘mortgage meltdown.’”

“‘We cover nine of the 10 markets in those foreclosure reports,’ Bates said, ‘and we looked for an increase in rental occupancies after all those people lost their homes. We didn't find it.’”

“Then he realized that credit reports took a nosedive after foreclosure.”

“‘When they're foreclosed on, their FICO (credit) scores are screwed, and landlords take that seriously,’ Bates said, referring to investment-grade units. ‘They can't rent.’”

Thursday, October 18, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Boca Raton)

Thank you to a reader for this listing. This unit is being sold at a price that is 22% below its 1984 (not a typo) purchase price. It's beyond me why they paid that much back in 1984. Certainly it must have something to do with Emmanuel Goldstein (obscure Orwell reference).


6845 WILLOW WOOD Dr # 3046, Boca Raton, FL 33434


2 Bed, 2 Bath Condo
Bought in December 1984 for $122,000
On the MLS for $95,000
Days on the Market: 72
Loss before the Realtor® commission: $27,000
Loss after the Realtor® commission: $32,700


I need your help with this daily feature. Do you know of a F@cked Buyer? Just add the MLS number or the FSBO link in the comments section and I will add it to an this daily update in the future.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

The Risk of Catching a Falling Knife

Lucas Lechuga, a Miami Realtor®, writes on market timing in his blog:

“Nowadays, it seems like everyone is looking for a deal and the right opportunity to buy in Miami. The million dollar question that I get from the people who contact me each day is ‘When will be the best time to buy a condo in Miami?’”.

“The answer to that question depends on your objectives and knowledge of the Miami condo market. If you’re an investor ‘looking to buy a condo in a good neighborhood of Miami at a significant discount’ then the answer to that question is as vague as your objective – ‘Nobody knows!’. That’s like saying that you want to buy the best stock at the bottom of a bear market. Good luck!”

“Keep in mind that the ‘market bottom’ for the Miami condo market might not necessarily be the best time to buy for people with such a pinpoint objective as the one above. These people might miss out on better opportunities that will have passed them by.”

While Mr. Lechuga is correct that nobody knows when the market will actually hit bottom, I will show that it is far riskier to buy “too early” than to “miss out on better opportunities that will have passed them by.”

It isn’t too difficult to see why buying into a rapidly falling market is a huge risk. If someone buys now and the market drops another 20%, it could take years of waiting for a market turnaround before their real estate purchase can be profitable. As we have seen in the daily F@cked Buyer posts, it is often impossible to sell a home after the market has dropped without paying cash at closing or ruining one’s credit through a short sale or foreclosure.

On the other hand, what happens when a buyer misses the bottom? Are they really missing a huge opportunity?

In order to illustrate what happens, I developed a simplified model to compare someone who buys “too early” versus someone who buys “too late.”

Model Assumptions


  • I start by assuming the buyer is considering a median-priced home in South Florida, which is currently priced at $319,900 (see my previous post on median listing-prices in South Florida).
  • I compare two buyers. The “Impatient Buyer” buys right now. The “Patient Buyer” buys three years from now.
  • I assume the market can be in three possible phases: declining, stagnating, or experiencing modest growth. For the purposes of this model, I assume that we will not see hyperinflation in the housing market like we experience between 2001 and 2005, at least not in the near term. I think this is a safe assumption because new bubbles rarely appear soon after the collapse of an old bubble.
  • For the declining price phases, I assume an 11.11% per year decline. I chose 11.11% because those are the estimated declines that we’ve experience between September 2006 and September 2007 (see my previous post on this estimate).
  • For the modest growth phases, I use a 4% annual price increase. This is the normal and sustainable price growth that South Florida traditionally experience up until the anomaly that we experiences since 2001 (see my previous post on normal and sustainable price growth).
  • I assume that the homebuyer will have to use a Realtor® if they want to sell their home. This will cost them 6% of the sales price. Of course, the seller does have the option of selling FSBO, which will reduce much of the risk once the market stabilizes. However, since most home sellers use Realtors®, including this assumption makes sense.
  • I ignore opportunity costs, which mitigates some of the advantages of the “Patient Buyer.” In the three years that the “Patient Buyers” waits to purchase his home, this buyer can invest his down payment. He will also save money on property taxes, insurance, and interest. For the sake of simplicity, I ignore this impact.
  • I ignore inflation. While this doesn’t impact the comparison between the two buyers, it does affect how we read the graphs below. Some of the graphs show what appear to be sizable profits. However, if we assume that inflation remains hovering around 3%, the actual (real) profits for both buyers are de minimis.


Using these assumptions, I tested the model to see how variations in the market affect the two buyers. I tried four possible scenarios based on the timing of the price phases. The graph shows the profit (loss) each buyer would experience if they sold their house over a 15-year planning horizon. The profit (loss) accounts for the 6% sales commission they would have to pay the Realtor® at the time of the sale.


Scenario 1 (My best guess – how I think the market will track)


  • 2 years of a declining market
  • 3 years of stagnation
  • 10 years of modest growth




    Discussion: This graph shows the enormous risk a homebuyer commits by buying in a falling market. Because of the expected 6% Realtors® commission that will be charged at closing, the “Impatient Buyer” will not be able to get his original purchase price back until more than 13 years after his purchase. In other words, a homebuyer that uses 100% financing will have to come to the closing table with cash if he decides to see before the end of his thirteenth year in the house. For much of that period, the cash needed at closing is significant (as much as $81,711).

    On the other hand, the “Patient Buyer” who waits until the market stagnates will spend less than four years in the negative zone. More importantly, during those four years, the “Patient Buyer” can sell his home and never lose more than $15,204.




Scenario 2 (The rapid turnaround -- "Patient Buyer" misses the bottom)

  • 1 year of declining markets
  • 1 year of stagnation
  • 13 years of modest growth



    Discussion: I like showing this graph because it shows what happens when the Patient Buyer misses the bottom. In this case, the Patient Buyer bought into the market one year after the turnaround (he could have bought at a median-priced home for $284,711, but instead spent $297,070. However, despite the missed opportunity, the Patient Buyer still does much better than the Impatient Buyer. Even in the fast turnaround, the Impatient Buyer must wait nearly 8 years before they can sell their home without bringing money to the closing table (assuming 100% financing).


Scenario 3: (Doomsday with longer declines)

  • 3 years of declining markets
  • 2 years of stagnation
  • 10 years of modest growth



    Discussion: Many predict far greater and longer declines than the 22% declines predicted in Scenario 1. This shows what would happen if we had 33% declines over a three-year period. In this case, the “Patient Buyer” really comes out ahead because he buys at the bottom while the “Impatient Buyer” must endure three years of steadily dropping prices. In this case, the “Patient Buyer” will make $94,831 more than the “Impatient Buyer” over the long-term. It will take the “Impatient Buyer” 16 years before they recover their investment.

Scenario 4: (Pollyanna view – we’ve already hit bottom)

  • 1 year stagnation
  • 14 years of modest growth





    Discussion: This graph shows the potential upside to the “Impatient Buyer.” In this case, the “Patient Buyer” missed two years of growth and ended up paying 8% more for his house than had he bought at the bottom. For most the long-term planning horizon, the “Impatient Buyer” will make $27,240 more than the “Patient Buyer.” However, even in this case, the “Impatient Buyer” remains in the red for 29 months compared to the “Patient Buyer” who only there for 19 months.

Summary

The following chart shows the summary of the four scenarios:




This shows that in every case, the “Patient Buyer” has much less at risk than the “Impatient Buyer.” Even in Scenario 4, where the “Impatient Buyer” has a higher profit, he still puts himself at risk because he must remain in the red for a longer period of time.

Ultimately, each buyer must make their own decision on the appropriate time to buy. However, it is important to understand that there is typically more risk in buying into a falling market than there is risk in missing the bottom of the market.





Today's F@cked Buyer (Two Houses in Lighthouse Point)

Thank you to "140 dollars per sq foot" for telling us about this amazing F@cked Buyer.

This F@cked Buyer bought his first Lighthouse Point property in December 2006 using 100% financing with an interest-only ARM. Then, only one month later, he bought a second Lighthouse Point property also using 100% financing with another ARM.

In just two months, this person bought 2 homes for a total of $2.81 million -- with not one cent of his own as a downpayment. Now, only nine month after his first purchase, both homes are on the market listed as pre-foreclosure properties. The collective loss on these sales are projected at $977,940.

These transaction perfectly illustrate the excesses of the real estate market -- excesses that were still occurring just a few months ago.

HOUSE # 1

3001 NE 47TH ST, LIGHTHOUSE POINT, FL 33064

House # 2


3821 NE 27TH AV, LIGHTHOUSE POINT, FL 33064


I need your help with this daily feature. Do you know of a F@cked Buyer? Just add the MLS number or the FSBO link in the comments section and I will add it to an this daily update in the future.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Royal Palm Beach)

These type of properties are becoming commonplace. The buyer purchased this with 100% financing. Only four months later, he received a notice of default. Seven months after his purchase, the bank repossessed the property. What I can't figure out is why it took the bank so long to list the property for sale. The foreclosure judgement was on October 19, 2006 and it wasn't listed untile October 5, 2007. Why did it take the bank almost one year to list the property? Perhaps, it was relisted with a new Realtor®?


120 SPARROW Dr # 301, Royal Plm Beach, FL 33411

I need your help with this daily feature. Do you know of a F@cked Buyer? Just add the MLS number or the FSBO link in the comments section and I will add it to an this daily update in the future.

Monday, October 15, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Coral Springs)

This 4/2/2 with a pool is in a great neighborhood in Coral Springs. Since it seemed reasonably priced at $288,000, I drove by the house to check this foreclosure out. The house turned out to be trashed with a damaged roof, gutted floors, and broken windows. It's probably needs $50,000 to make it livable. At least it's priced far below its 2004 purchase price.

8162 NW 2ND MNR, CORAL SPRINGS, FL 33071

I need your help with this daily feature. Do you know of a F@cked Buyer? Just add the MLS number or the FSBO link in the comments section and I will add it to an this daily update in the future.

Sunday, October 14, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Miramar)

This was purchased a little over a year ago and now is being offered at a 35% discount.

2436 CENTERGATE DR Unit: 105, MIRAMAR, FL 33025

I need your help with this daily feature. Do you know of a F@cked Buyer? Just add the MLS number or the FSBO link in the comments section and I will add it to an this daily update in the future.

Saturday, October 13, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Fort Lauderdale)

I keep seeing homes like this that make leave me in disbelief. Someone actually paid $430,000 for a two-bedroom townhouse in Ft. Lauderdale. What in the world were they thinking?

327 SW 13TH TE Unit: 327, FORT LAUDERDALE, FL

I need your help with this daily feature. Do you know of a F@cked Buyer? Just add the MLS number or the FSBO link in the comments section and I will add it to an this daily update in the future.

Friday, October 12, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Sunrise)

This short sale is being offered at a 34% discount from its 2005 purchase price. Despite the discount, it still seems significantly over priced.

725 SW 148TH AV Unit: 505, SUNRISE, FL 33325

I need your help with this daily feature. Do you know of a F@cked Buyer? Just add the MLS number or the FSBO link in the comments section and I will add it to an this daily update in the future.

Thursday, October 11, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Plantation)


Ziprealty.com shows the price of this foreclosure at $195,000. The link to Realtor.com shows the price at $225,000, but the scrolling banners says $195,000. Regardless, the loss on townhouse is significant. It also has to make you wonder what people were thinking when they paid $275,000 for this 2/2 townhouse.


9386 SW 1ST ST Unit: 102, PLANTATION, FL 33324

2 Bed, 2 Bath Townhouse
Bought in March 2006 for $275,000
On the MLS for $195,000
Days on the MLS: 12 Days
Loss before the Realtor® commission: $80,000
Loss after the Realtor® commission: $91,700

I need your help with this daily feature. Do you know of a F@cked Buyer? Just add the MLS number or the FSBO link in the comments section and I will add it to an this daily update in the future.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Margate)

Thank you to a reader for this foreclosure. This property has lingered on the market for 183 days, but the listing agent warns, "Hurry, this property will not last." The bank that is selling this property has reduced the price five times from its original listing price of $419,000.

2621 NW 79TH AV, MARGATE, FL 33063

I need your help with this daily feature. Do you know of a F@cked Buyer? Just add the MLS number or the FSBO link in the comments section and I will add it to an this daily update in the future.




Today's Local Real Estate News: "I've seen some tough times, but I've never seen anything like this."

The Palm Beach Post provided one of the more realistic views of the local real estate market:

“The housing market in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast has turned "brutal" and is getting worse, a veteran mortgage broker said Tuesday.”

“The stark outlook came from William Davis, president of Private Funding Specialists Inc. in Palm Beach Gardens and past president of the Palm Beach County chapter of the Florida Association of Mortgage Brokers.”

“‘I've seen some tough times, but I've never seen anything like this,’ Davis told members of the Economic Forum of Palm Beach County.”

“There were 33,708 houses and condos listed for sale in Palm Beach County in August, according to Illustrated Properties Real Estate's analysis of Multiple Listing Service data. Illustrated Properties President Chappy Adams didn't attend Davis' speech but agreed with his conclusions.”

“‘It's pretty bad,’ Adams said. ‘We've got a 40-month supply of homes, which has got to be an all-time high. For the foreseeable future, prices are going to keep coming down a bit.’”

A Palm Beach Post real estate blog added some other quotes made by William Davis at the same meeting:

“On the foreclosures that follow negative amortization loans: ‘We called them neutron bombs, because the people would go away, and the buildings would stay.’”

“On the housing hangover: ‘We had a three-year fraternity party, and it’s going to take more than a month of Sundays to clean up the mess.’”

“On the glut of homes on the market: ‘It’ll make you sicker than West Palm water if I tell you how many houses are for sale.’”

A Miami Herald poll tells a similar story:

“Last week, we asked readers what impact the stagnant real estate market is having on them. Those with homes on the market made a strong turnout: 48 percent of respondents said they're trying to sell but buyers aren't biting. On the other end of the spectrum, 29 percent said they aren't feeling any impact, as they have no plans to move; 14 percent said they'd like to buy, but taxes and insurance are still too high; 5 percent said they'd like to sell but will wait until the market picks up, and another 5 percent are ready and willing to buy now.”

The New York Times reports on the troubles faced a bank that financed condominium developments:

“Javier Miglin may walk away from an $80,000 down payment on a condominium with water views in Miami. Randal Mills may give up a $130,000 deposit on a 15th floor condo on the Strip in Las Vegas. And in San Diego, Jeanette Graham would just like to meet the neighbors.”

“The three seemingly unrelated predicaments have a common thread that leads to Chicago, and Corus Bankshares, which financed the construction of each condominium development involved.”

“Whether buyers like Mr. Miglin and Mr. Mills close on their condos will be a crucial indicator for Corus. Many condo projects that started during the real estate boom are just being completed, and developers must begin repaying construction loans taken out before the market turned sour. If buyers do not close, and developers struggle, lenders like Corus may be left holding the bag.”

“Still, the Corus Bank president, Robert J. Glickman, remained optimistic. So far, he said in an e-mail message, developers have used many successful strategies ‘to ensure that buyers come to the closing table.’”

“‘Good developers — those that are diligent, successful — need to keep up the buyers’ interest and desire to close,’ he said.”

“That optimism raises warning signs with analysts like Jack McCabe, a real estate consultant in Deerfield Beach, Fla. He has been hired by hedge funds and other investors to study 8 of 12 projects in Miami that Corus has financed and advise them on their progress.”

“‘In this market downturn, even the most successful developers with the best projects and the best geographic locations are going to take hits,’ Mr. McCabe said. ‘Mr. Glickman’s comments are eagerly overoptimistic and do not match the severity of this downturn.””

As the prices of condos tumble, expect more builders to walk away from unfinished projects. The Sun-Sentinel reports on one troubled condominium project in Boca Raton:

“The developer of the troubled Eden condo project missed two deadlines Tuesday that were part of its agreement with the city to extend its building permits.”

“Three weeks after the City Council scolded Ceebraid-Signal Corp. before agreeing to permit extensions, the city put the company on notice they would expire if it didn't submit a $500,000 letter of credit or a written plan on securing the four-building site in the next 15 days.”

“After years of financial trouble and construction delays, three Eden buildings remain unfinished.”

“Expiration of the building permits could lead to the demolition of the unfinished buildings.”

USA Today reports on how the housing slump is affecting homebuilders:

“Even as home buyers were being offered a free washer, dryer, refrigerator and window blinds, plus 5% off the price or in cash to pay closing costs, business was dragging at Reeves Williams' communities.”

“So at the end of July, Reeves Williams, a home builder in the South, began offering $20,000 in incentives or cash assistance. In the first week, 22 buyers had signed contracts for new homes. Then the mortgage market fell into a tailspin.”

“‘We lost 17 of them. It was a huge hit,’ says Martha Fondren, vice president of sales. ‘It was a credit issue. They did not have horrible credit. But they didn't have the credit scores to get (a loan), and six months ago they would have.’”

“Since early August, the real estate market has sunk deeper into recession. Forecasts of a recovery have been pushed back to the middle of 2008 — at the earliest. For home builders, market conditions are already worse than in the last housing recession, in 1991-92.”

“Stuart Miller, CEO of Miami-based Lennar, says he thinks some builders' price cuts have been ‘unrealistic, maybe even ridiculous.’ Lennar reported the worst quarterly financial results in the company's history and a surge in cancellation rates.”

“Miller says he walked away from 15,000 home sites the company had planned to develop and has laid off 35% of his staff. ‘August seemed to be a melting pot of all things negative,’ Miller says.”

“Some laid-off employees have managed to find jobs in commercial real estate, which so far hasn't been affected as much by the turmoil in the credit markets. But the magnitude of the downsizing among builders is exerting a drag on the economy that could, in turn, further dampen demand for new homes.”

“‘We have hundreds of thousands of jobs to lose over the next six to 18 months,’ says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com. ‘Housing employment accounts for 10% of all jobs nationwide and 15% of the economy.’”

CBS 4 reports on the mortgage woes facing South Floridians:

“Since 2005, home buyers in Miami-Dade and Broward counties have signed so-called ‘exotic’ mortgages at twice the rate of borrowers in the rest of the country, according to a report done by CBS4 news partner The Miami Herald.”

“These mortgages included loans with low so-called ''teaser'' rates which can skyrocket within three years to as high as 16 percent.”

“Roughly one in five mortgages written in Miami-Dade and Broward counties between 2005 and July 2007 fell into one of those categories, according to data from McDash Analytics, a private firm that gathers information from nine of the 10 largest loan servicers in the United States and provided to The Herald.”

“The potential financial peril could go beyond the more than 100,000 South Floridians who signed such loans since they became popular in 2005. If banks foreclose, or owners are forced to sell at a bargain price, experts say it could extend, and deepen, the pain from the already troubled housing market.”

The Palm Beach Post explains how the dissolution of many subprime lenders is affecting homeowners:

“The worst housing slump in 16 years has produced a subprime mortgage meltdown, widespread layoffs and record foreclosures.”

“It also has produced Larry Leggett, a Vero Beach homeowner who wants to make his monthly payment — he just doesn't know where to send it.”

“That's because HomeBanc, his mortgage company, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in August. As of Thursday, the only thing he had received was a form letter — addressed to ‘Dear Valued HomeBanc Customer’ — telling him he would get a statement at the end of the year.”

“And this: ‘As a reminder, effective Oct. 1, 2007, all checks will be made payable to the new mortgage company that will service your loan. If you have any questions about this transfer, please contact your new lender on all matters concerning your loan.’”

“Unfortunately, HomeBanc didn't tell him who his new lender is. Or how to contact it. Or where to send his mortgage payment.”

“‘We were making it through this horrible, tough time,’ he said, ‘and then this happens. I am just trying to make my payment.’”

The Sun-Sentinel reports that Governor Crist continues to push for property tax reform:

“Gov. Charlie Crist on Tuesday released a retooled $6.3 billion package of property-tax cuts he said he may ask Florida legislators to vote on next week.”

“‘I don't know if we'll be able to do it for sure,’ Crist said. ‘But if you get the good framework ... my view is, ‘Why not do that? Why not get the job done?’”

“The plan would scale back the $8 billion in tax savings promised by an earlier proposal that was thrown off the Jan. 29 ballot by a Leon County judge. It would save the owner of a $275,000 home just $214 a year in property taxes, though it would deliver substantially bigger breaks to first-time home buyers or people who sell one home and buy another.”

“Fort Lauderdale Vice Mayor Carlton Moore called Crist's proposal ‘a political stunt.’ Genuine tax reform, he said, would end the possibility of two next-door neighbors getting drastically different tax bills.”

“‘You have not done anything until you're addressed the inequity of our tax process,’ Moore said.”

The Miami Herald reports on a troubled real estate firm:

“The housing-market decline has taken its toll on another giant Florida real estate company. St. Joe, Florida's largest private landowner, plans to eliminate more than 75 percent of its workforce and sell about 100,000 acres of land.”

“St. Joe, whose 800,000 acres in Northwest Florida include some of the last pristine beachfront land, had ambitious plans to remake the region. It owns 10 master-planned communities, seven commerce parks, six golf courses and three marinas and had donated land for a new airport in the Florida Panhandle.”

“Now the company that referred to itself as a ‘place maker’ is handing off the management of its planned communities to what it calls strategic partners. CEO Peter Rummell said the move makes good business sense regardless of market conditions.”

“‘This is not a fire sale,’ Rummell told analysts Monday on a conference call. ‘We are not going to make stupid decisions, but there are things that we believe have reached their height in pricing. I firmly believe that we would be doing this whether the market was good or bad.’”

But, the housing slump also continue to affect non-real-estate industries. Ryder is the latest to report lowered earning as a result:

“Trucking company Ryder System Inc. lowered its third-quarter and full-year earnings forecast Monday because of softness in the housing and construction industries and beyond.”

“Miami-based Ryder also said it's cutting 300 jobs among its more than 28,000 employees worldwide. The cuts are part of a restructuring plan that will result in charges of about $12 million in the third quarter. The charges will offset a third-quarter gain of about $10 million from the sale of a property, Ryder said.”

“The economic factors have hurt Ryder's higher-margin commercial rental segment, where revenue has declined for six straight quarters, said analyst Todd Fowler of KeyBanc Capital Markets.”

“‘It is our opinion the concentration of Ryder's weakness is housing related, although we sense the company is seeing some spillover to broader industries, resulting in a more cautious outlook,’ Fowler said.”

Tuesday, October 9, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (Palm Beach Gardens)

Thank you to a reader for short sale listing. The listing agent advises in their notes, "Opportunity knocks… Move in with instant equity."

1616 NATURE, PALM BEACH GARDENS, FL 33410

I need your help with this daily feature. Do you know of a F@cked Buyer? Just add the MLS number or the FSBO link in the comments section and I will add it to an this daily update in the future.

Monday, October 8, 2007




Today's F@cked Buyer (South Beach)

The price on this South Beach short sale has dropped 16% in 18 months, but be prepared to pay $243 in monthly HOA fees. For those of you who follow South Beach, can't you do much better for a quarter of a million dollars than this place?

1000 MICHIGAN AV Unit: 705, MIAMI BEACH, FL 33139

I need your help with this daily feature. Do you know of a F@cked Buyer? Just add the MLS number or the FSBO link in the comments section and I will add it to an this daily update in the future.

Sunday, October 7, 2007




Video: Presidential Candidate Mike Huckabee on the Proprosed Bailout

If you know of any local, state, or national political candidates that have videos where they address the housing bubble, please sent me a link. I do not want this site to seem one-sided politically.

In this video, Presidential Candidate Mike Huckabee gives his views of the proposed government bailout of troubled borrowers:

CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE VIDEO




Today's F@cked Buyer (Sunrise)

Someone paid way too much for this property. I have no idea why someone would pay $270,000 for a small, three-bedroom condo in this part of Sunrise even at the peak of the market, much less in 2006. It was never homesteaded and is now being offered as a short sale. Since this property would rent for around $1,100, it is still significantly over priced.

8000 NW 27TH CT Unit: 6, SUNRISE, FL 33322

I need your help with this daily feature. Do you know of a F@cked Buyer? Just add the MLS number or the FSBO link in the comments section and I will add it to an this daily update in the future.




Plantation sellers featured on new TLC television show

Yesterday, The Learning Channel (TLC) premiered a new series, “Please Buy My House.” SouthCoastToday.com explains:

“‘Please Buy My House’ (8 p.m. Saturday, TLC) marks a departure from the cable real-estate fantasy shows in which owners sell their domiciles without effort and investors depart for champagne wishes and caviar dreams by ‘flipping’ real estate for a living.”

“The housing market is in a funk, and ‘Please Buy My House’ recognizes that fact. The show documents families trying new approaches to sell homes that have been on the market for too long, draining their resources and causing endless worry.”

Yesterday, the show featured the Bental family as they struggled to sell their home in Plantation, Florida. Two years ago, Dan and Andrea Bental moved with their four kids from Plantation to Little River, South Carolina so Dan could take a “better” job. When they moved, the Bentals purchased a new home in South Carolina before they sold their Plantation home.

Andrea explained why they purchased a new home prior to selling their old one, “We felt very comfortable buying a house in South Carolina because of what was going on in South Florida. It was a no-brainer.”

In April 2005, the Bentals listed their four-bedroom, two-bath ranch home in Plantation for $875,000. After two years on the market and a price drop down to $749,000, the house was still unsold. The TLC show, which was filmed in April 2007, highlighted the Bentals latest effort to sell the house.

The show focused on the hardships faced by the Bentals as they tried to pay two mortgages. Since they were unable to afford the two mortgage, the Bentals refinanced the Planation home, pulling out $100,000. They also took a loan against a 401k for $50,000. By the end of the show, the Bentals mentioned they may be forced to use their kid’s college savings to prevent going into foreclosure.

The show was clearly empathetic towards the Bentals’ plight. Knowing the difficult market here in South Florida, I felt sorry for the Bentals as I watched the show. Not only were they wiping out their own savings, their mistake was placing their children’s future education in jeopardy. However, researching the Bentals’ situation and filling in information omitted from the show, my feelings of empathy completely disappeared.

After watching the show, I immediately looked up the Bentals’ home on the MLS. Since the show, they have dropped the price of their home another $100,000, down to $649,000. However, even at that price, they are completely unrealistic. The Bentals are selling a 4/2, older-construction (1977) 3,100 square-foot ranch-style home on a very large lot (3/4 acre). Consider what some of the Bentals’ competition at that price range:


I could add dozens of similar homes that are newer, bigger, nicer, and in better neighborhoods. If I were buying right now in that $650,000 price range, I would never consider the Bentals’ home – and it is not even close.

Keep in mind, the Bentals originally listed their house two-and-half years ago for an absolutely ridiculous $875,000. Even with a $226,000 price reductions, the home remains painfully overpriced.

My feeling of empathy eroded further when I looked at the Bentals history with this home. The Broward County Property Appraiser’s website shows that the Bentals purchased the home in 2003 for $405,000. The originally financed the home for $364,500 and as explained in the show, pulled out another $100,000. They currently owe $518,000 on the home that is financed through an interest-only (currently 6.25%) ARM.

The Bentals could drop their price down to $551,000 and could still walk away after paying the Realtor®’s commission and paying off their outstanding mortgage. Instead, the Bentals remain steadfast, paying nearly $5,000 every month to maintain an empty house. At the end of the show, Dan explained that he was going to hold out until the real estate market turned around.

The reason this show piqued my interest is because it perfectly illustrates the mindset that I think is pervasive among South Florida sellers. Here’s some of what I think is driving Bentals and others who seem completely displaced from realty:

  • Sellers do not seem to realize that price is by far the biggest factor that produces sales. In the TLC show, the Bentals went through great efforts to promote their open house. However, after all the effort, they had no serious inquiries. Why? Their price was ridiculous. Open houses, advertising, signs, hiring the “right” Realtor®, free giveaways, and sales gimmicks are all completely useless if the home is not priced correctly. A well-priced home will get traffic even in our current market.

  • Sellers seem to follow sales rather than listing prices. I imagine if you look at sales in the Plantation Acres neighborhood during the past two years, you will find a few 4/2 homes that sold for over $600,000. This is probably driving the Bentals’ pricing strategy. In my opinion, Realtors® are mostly to blame for this mindset as they constantly quote “comps” as an indicator of the current market. However, past sales are absolutely irrelevant, especially in today's slow-moving, high-inventory market. The only compariable prices that are relevant is the current listing prices of the other homes for sale in local mareket. Potential buyers do not care what sold last year; they only care about current, comparable listings.

  • Sellers tend to look only at the competition in their own small, local neighborhoods, which is not extremely relevant. Modern buyers, with access to easy-to-use Internet search engines, typically look at a large areas. For instance, most potential buyers that would consider the Bentals’ home will evaluate all of West Broward, not just Plantation Acres. In this case, there are loads of homes in Davie, Cooper City, Weston, and Coral Springs that are much better values. This is one of the reasons we see entire neighborhoods that are over-priced and have little or no sales activity.

  • Sellers seem to ignore holding costs. In this case, the Bentals are paying $5,000 a month to maintain their home. In the two-and-a-half years that the Bentals have been trying to sell their home, they have spent approximately $150,000 in carrying costs. Discounting early could have saved them all those costs.

  • Sellers seem to think, “Prosperity is just around the corner.” At the end of the show, Dan Bental explained that the market would change within the next two to three years. The couple seemed to be holding out for real estate’s rebound. This attitude is surprisingly common even though every piece of data shows that the market will continue in its freefall. The theory that the real estate recovery is imminent may be the most destructive of all these sellers’ attitudes.

While this is my list, there are certainly other pervasive attitudes among South Florida sellers. Please share any that you may have seen.